Invest2Success Blog

Bear Market Trading For Maximum Profit

2012-02-13T05:24:00.001-05:00

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I've got a new low-risk high-reward short-sell stock pick this week on Citrix Systems hi-tech company. With the major indicies hitting major resistance at this point, a big sharp sell-off could easily hit the market. As the markets are now facing some stiff resistance, today is the beginning of the "How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market, A Live Intensive Online Trading Course". Click the link above to check it out. It may just be something very profitable in the weeks, months, and years to come for you.

Zacks Investment Research reports Citrix Systems Inc. declared financial results for the fourth quarter of 2011, which managed to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimates. Global trends toward virtualization and cloud computing are facilitating the company to post solid results. However, management provided a weak financial outlook for fiscal 2012, primarily due to the company’s decision for more acquisition and its sales force reorganization. Just a couple of days ago Citrix’s major competitor, VMware Inc., provided a rosy outlook for fiscal 2012.

Quarterly net revenue was $619.4 million, up 17% year over year and was in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $619 million. GAAP net income was $108.7 million or 58 cents per share compared with a net income of $94.4 million or 49 cents per share in the prior-year quarter. Quarterly adjusted EPS of 66 cents slivered past the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny.

Gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2011 was 87.2% compared with 88% in the year-ago quarter. Operating expenses in the reported quarter were around $404.4 million compared with $353 million in the prior-year quarter. However, quarterly operating margin was 21.9% compared with 21.4% in the prior-year quarter.

During the fourth quarter of 2011, Citrix repurchased 1.4 million of its common outstanding shares for around $99.2 million. At the end of fiscal 2011, deferred revenue was $960 million, up 23.2% year over year.

During the fourth quarter of 2011, Citrix generated over $169.6 million of cash from operations and free cash flow (cash flow from operations less capital expenditures) during the reported quarter was approximately $146.5 million. At the end of fiscal 2011, the company had nearly $1,477.6 million of cash and marketable securities compared with $1,685.6 billion at the end of fiscal 2010. Balance sheet remains free of any debt obligations.

Revenue by Product Mix

Product Licenses revenue was $229.1 million, up 20% year over year. License updates revenue was $192.9 million, up 9% year over year. Software Services revenue was $114.4 million, an increase of 19% over the prior-year quarter, and Technical Services revenue was $83 million, up 36% year over year.

Revenue by Product Grouping

Desktop solutions revenue in fiscal 2011 was $1,278.8 million, up 12.5% year over year. Data Center and Cloud Solutions revenue was $385.5 million, up 29.1% year over year. Online Services revenue was $427.7 million, up 18.6% year over year. Revenue from Other Products was $114.3 million, up 46.4% year over year.

Revenue by Geography

Revenue in the Americas (North & Latin America) region was $278 million. Revenue in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East region was $170.8 million. Revenue in the Asia Pacific region was $58.6 million.

First Quarter of 2012 Financial Outlook

Management forecasted that the company’s first-quarter 2012 revenue will be within the range of $555 million - $565 million. GAAP EPS will be within the range of 30 cents - 31 cents and non-GAAP EPS will be between 49 cents – 51 cents. Stock-based compensation expenses will be 16 cents per share.

Full Fiscal 2012 Financial Outlook

Management forecasted that the company’s fiscal 2012 revenue will be within the range of $2.49 billion - $2.51 billion. GAAP EPS will be within the range of $1.88 - $1.97 and non-GAAP EPS will be within the range of $2.70 - $2.74. Stock-based compensation expenses will be 71 cents per share.

Zacks Recommendation

We believe the virtualization market will continue to flourish with desktop virtualization as its core theme. This trend is expected to sustain future growth of both Citrix Systems. We maintain our long-term Neutral recommendation on Citrix Systems. Currently, it holds a short-term Zacks #3 Rank (Hold) on the stock.

Invest2Success Recommendation

Sell Short Citrix Systems – Ticker CTRX

Sell Entry: 71.68 to 78.77

Stop-Loss: 85.07

Take Profit Areas: 57.81 to 56.12, 54.44 to 52.66, 43.09 to 41.74, 29.23 to 28.30

Company Profile

Citrix Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and markets technology solutions that deliver information technology services on-demand worldwide. It offers desktop solutions, including Citrix XenDesktop, an integrated desktop virtualization system; Citrix XenApp, an application virtualization solution; and Citrix XenClient, a bare-metal hypervisor, which runs directly on the client device hardware. The company also provides online services, comprising GoToMeeting for online meetings, sales demonstrations, and collaborative gatherings; GoToWebinar, which allows users to host, attend, or participate in a Webinar session; GoToTraining, a training tool that allows trainers to deliver content to various trainees; Integrated HiDef Audio, which provides a audio and Web experience; HiDef Audio that offers audio options with reservationless audio conferencing; GoToAssist, a remote technical-support solution; GoToManage solution for IT management; and GoToMyPC, which offers remote access to PC and Mac from an Internet-connected computer. In addition, it provides datacenter and cloud solutions, such as Citrix NetScaler, a Web application delivery controller; Citrix Access Gateway, a SSL/VPN that delivers applications with policy-based SmartAccess control; Citrix Repeater Solutions that provide application delivery to branch office users; Citrix XenServer, a platform for managing server virtualization in the datacenter; and Citrix Essentials for XenServer and Hyper-V solution for lab automation, high availability, provisioning, workflow orchestration, and integration with storage systems. Further, the company provides consulting, technical support, and product training and certification services. It markets and licenses its products to enterprise customers through systems integrators, value-added resellers, value-added distributors, and original equipment manufacturers, as well as through the Web. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

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Click the Citrix Systems stock chart below for a larger view.

Inflation or Deflation? Which One Is It?

2012-02-09T06:59:00.000-05:00

Click Here To Review the Financial Forecast

Inflation vs. Deflation: See the Chart That Settles the Debate

I once heard a legendary radio broadcaster and producer describe what he believed is the biggest sin a public speaker can commit.

It's not verbal stumbling, going overboard with warm-up jokes or speaking too long. The greatest sin a public speaker can commit is to be uninteresting. What's more, the failure is related much more to the speaker's lack of preparation than to the topic.

This broadcaster argued that even the history of the fork could become an interesting talk.

We believe our financial and economic analysis is made even more interesting and insightful by using handcrafted charts. They're different than what you find in other financial publications -- they reflect our uniquely independent analysis.

The chart below from the December Financial Forecast is a good example. It addresses the inflation vs. deflation debate. (Below the chart, you'll find the edited accompanying text):

. . . the annual rate of change in the Consumer Price Index shows how deflation is slowly assuming control over the economy...The stock market decline of 2000-2002, the first Cycle-degree decline since the 1970s low, failed to generate outright deflation, but it did produce a steady reduction in the rate of growth of inflation. As Cycle wave c down grabbed hold in 2008, [the Financial Forecast] warned of outright deflation, which would be the first year-over-year consumer price decline in 53 years. One key tip-off was a clear uptick in concern about inflation. In March 2008...the spike to the most recent high on the chart formed and a commodity blow-off “sparked economists’ talk of inflation.” [The Financial Forecast] held instead that a “powerful deflation will carry the day.” The chart [above] shows the result.

The arrow marks the CPI’s drop in 2008 as just the beginning of a new deflationary era. Importantly, the inflationary concerns cited in 2008 have yet to abate. The bottom line on the chart shows the median expectation for consumer prices over the next year. Despite the relentless decrease in the rate of inflation from 1980, and especially since 2008, rising consumer prices remain the chief worry...A “fighting the last war” mentality explains much about the persistence of inflationary expectations...the Cycle wave IV bear market (first grey area on the chart) from 1966 to 1982 (in inflation-adjusted terms) mostly featured intensifying inflation. As CPI growth surged to a peak of 14.8% in March 1980, inflation expectations also peaked, at 10.4% in January 1980. At this point, the relentless slowing of rising prices has yet to generate any aggregate fear of falling prices...Deflation will be the pre-eminent feature of the bear market; it won’t go away until it generates expectations that are at least commensurate, inversely, with the 1980 peak in inflation fear.

In the latest Financial Forecast, you'll find more charts and analysis. The topics include:

A Dow Jones Industrials' trendline stretching back to 1932, and the immediate relevance that trendline has today.

European financial developments and how they're dove-tailing with the market's "peaking process".

An extreme in investor sentiment and what that may mean for the market just ahead.

And much more!

Finding The Most Profitable Asia Stocks

2012-02-08T09:21:00.001-05:00

Click Here To Review The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast

Asian-Pacific Stocks: Which Country Is a Bull for 2012, and Which Is a Bear?

You may have noticed that many investors tend to think that "Stocks in the same region of the world move together."

This assumption seems to make sense, because regions often do share trading ties, natural resources, labor pools, etc. And yet . . . it's not the reality.

The reality is that every market develops its own Elliott wave pattern. How else do you explain that, for example, India's S&P CNX Nifty Index declined 25% in 2011, while Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries lost only 15%?

It's these differences -- and their implications for stock market trends in 2012 -- that you'll find discussed in the February 2012 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast.

In the February issue:

THE FACT OF THE EXPERIENTIAL MARKETING MATTER IS, some Asian-Pacific stocks are in a long-term bull trend, and some are in long-term bearish trends. The February 2012 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast tells you which ones are which.

CHINA & VIETNAM: Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh Index and China's Shanghai Composite both appear to be following the same Elliott wave pattern. In another similarity, protests over land disputes have erupted within both China and Vietnam recently. Find out what these and other Elliott wave and market sentiment indicators mean for the trend from here.

AUSTRALIA: You can see a long-term chart of the ASX which shows that 137 years of price action in Aussie stocks fit neatly inside a trend channel. The February 2012 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast also gives you a insightful look at the Aboriginal rights protests as compared to the historic highs and lows in the ASX.

SALMAN RUSHDIE AND THE SENSEX: When the India-born author appeared at the Jaipur Literature Festival in 2007, it went without a hitch. But at the 2011 festival authorities canceled Rushdie's video appearance, fearing riots. What's so different since 2007? The February 2012 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast gives you a unique, socionomic answer -- as well as a forecast for the SENSEX in the weeks ahead.

PAKISTAN: YES, WE KHAN? The year-long downtrend in Pakistan has been good for opposition party candidates. Find out our take on the future of a rising star named Imran Khan -- whose future is closely tied in with the trend in the KSE 100.

HONG KONG & SINGAPORE: The Hang Seng and Straits Times indexes are both in wave C's of their larger Elliott wave patterns. Expect similar moves in one direction soon.

JAPAN: The TOPIX Machinery Index has led the rally since the 2009 low and has continued to outperform the NIKKEI. Find out if it's just an outlier -- or a trendsetter.

SPECIAL SECTION: Anwar Ibrahim and The Politics of Social Mood. A socionomic look at the political life of Malaysia’s opposition coalition leader.

Tap into these insights now via a RISK-FREE subscription to The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service. You also get instant access to the still-valuable January 2012 issue.

China, India, Japan, Australia and Beyond:

Ride the 2012 Trends with EWI's Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service

Here's what you get:

The Asian-Pacific Short Term Update

Timely analysis and forecasts for the major stock indexes in Japan, China, India, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong, plus occasional updates for Taiwan, Korea and other Asian-Pacific nations. Editor and award-winning market technician Chris Carolan keeps you abreast of market moves between the monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast issues, while also providing valuable commentary on debt and forex markets.

The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast

Editor Mark Galasiewski's insightful and useful commentary on the major stock indexes in Japan, China, India, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea and more, plus on the region's financial and social trends has prompted one subscriber to write that Mark clearly has his "finger on the pulse of the local scene here."

The Elliott Wave Theorist

Trusted since 1979, Bob Prechter’s straight-talking Elliott Wave Theorist is the bedrock of EWI analysis. Delightfully contrary, refreshingly logical and downright accessible, the Theorist is a must-read for every independent investor. You get thought-provoking analysis and forecasts on the intermediate- and long-term direction of the financial markets, critical trends in investor psychology plus timely in-depth research and insights you’re guaranteed not to get from any other source.

Boosting Long-Term Mutual Fund Returns

2012-02-07T05:53:00.000-05:00

Click Here for a Morningstar Investment Research Free Trial

With some intelligent new-year planning, you can make your mutual fund investments even more rewarding. Here's how.

Step One: Rebalance Your Portfolio.

This is perhaps the most important step to take as the new-year kicks off--especially if you're concerned about the long-term performance of your mutual funds.

Mutual funds aren't static investments. Strategies and asset allocations change; managers come and go; fees creep up--and, suddenly, your perfectly positioned portfolio is out of whack.

Step Two: Mind the Dividend.

When you rebalance your portfolio and decide to sell a fund, then sell before the dividend. You'll pay a lower tax on your entire gain. Sell after the dividend, and a portion of your gain will be taxed as ordinary income, not capital gains. In other words, you'll pay more.

Buying a fund that did well? Wait until after the dividend. Otherwise, you'll get a check back for part of your purchase price--and be taxed on the proceeds.

Step Three: Sell and Save.

The market definitely has its ups and downs over the course of a year. This is not necessarily a bad thing--if you take advantage of it.

If you suffer losses at year's end in any mutual funds--funds you don't necessarily want to keep for the long term--then use your losses to offset capital gains (and the accompanying taxes) in your other, more profitable investments.

Do you want more research, analysis, and tips? Turn to the gold standard in mutual fund analysis.

For more than 25 years, Morningstar analysts have been delivering the goods on mutual funds, scrutinizing everything from strategies and management to stewardship, trading costs, and long-term performance. Our 100-person-strong global fund analyst team conducts thousands of manager interviews and hundreds of on-site visits each year.

Morningstar doesn't just lead the field in mutual fund analysis. We invented it. So, if you're serious about mutual fund investing, you should be serious about Morningstar FundInvestor. Our depth, experience, and independent recommendations pave the way to your financial success. We find the funds that stay competitive--and that offer you competitive advantages.

With Morningstar FundInvestor, you get quantitative research that taps the world's most comprehensive fund database to determine the best strategies for long-term investing success. You get extensive qualitative research of portfolio managers, analysts, and traders from the industry's most-knowledgeable fund analysts. And in the end, you get a truly comprehensive view of how a fund invests, who manages it, and what it can do for you. This is exactly what you need to invest with confidence.

It's a Great Time to Invest.

Now is a perfect time for Step One: Rebalance Your Portfolio. We've got scores of fund recommendations for you so that you can clear out the deadwood and invest with the best in the business. We also run funds through a battery of tests and let you know about the best strategies for picking good funds. When we come up with cutting-edge research, you'll see it first.

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SP500 Topping Out?

2012-02-06T19:22:00.000-05:00

Declining Volume on Rallies is Troubling by Market Trend Forecast

I don't have a stock pick this week as I don't see any low-risk high-reward long or short positions to take right now. If I had to take new positions I would be in general shorting USA and Europe and going long in the Asia markets with the very good values in those low-debt growing economies. The USA markets keep heading up when they should be taking a correction and or consolidation of some kind. The declining volume on these recent rallies is a troubling indicator for sure so lets see how this plays out this week before committing new money long or short to the DJIA, SP500, and Nasdaq markets.

Was Friday’s Price Action in Gold Signaling a Top in the S&P 500?

“You can’t feel the heat until you hold your hand over the flame. You have to cross the line just to remember where it lays.” ~ Rise Against. “Satellite” Lyrics ~

Last Friday morning traders and market participants awaited the key January employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reaction to the supposedly wonderful report was a surge in the S&P 500 E-Mini futures contracts as well as several other key equity index futures.

The overall tenor among the financial punditry was predictable as wildly bullish predictions permeated the morning session on CNBC and in the financial blogosphere. However, after the report had been out for several hours notable independent voices such as Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner came out with information that suggested the numbers were an apparition of manipulated statistics.

I am not going to spend a great deal of time discussing the report, but the reaction to the news was decisively bullish on Friday. The question I want to know is whether Friday was a blow off top? In the recent past the S&P 500 has seen several key inflection points and intermediate-term tops form on non-farm payroll monthly announcements.

I follow a variety of indicators to help me decipher more accurately when the market is getting overbought or oversold. For nearly two weeks the market has been extremely overbought, but now we are reaching truly astonishing levels. The following charts represent just a few signals that the market is due for a pullback and a top is likely approaching.

Percentage of NYSE Stocks Trading Above Their 50 Period Moving Average

The chart above clearly illustrates that as of Friday’s closing bell (02/03) over 89% of stocks were trading above their 50 period moving averages. Consequently that reading is one of the highest levels that we have seen in the past 3 years. In addition, over 73% of stocks that trade on the NYSE are currently priced above their longer-term 200 period moving averages. Another extremely overbought signal.

The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is another great tool for measuring the overall position of the S&P 500. It is without question that the longer term time frame is reaching the highest level of overbought conditions in the past 3 years.

McClellan Oscillator Divergence with S&P 500 Price Action

The two charts shown above present an interesting situation regarding the divergence in the McClellan Oscillator and the price action in the S&P 500. The most recent example of this type of divergence occurred in October of 2011 and prices immediately reversed to the upside after several months of selling pressure. In fact, this correlation between reversals in the S&P 500 and divergences in the McClellan Oscillator works relatively well historically.

Clearly there are bullish voices arguing for the 2011 S&P 500 Index high of 1,370.58 to be taken out to the upside in the near future. Additionally, several market technicians in the blogospere have been pointing to the key resistance range between 1,350 and 1,370 on the S&P 500 as a likely price target. Obviously if those price levels are met strong resistance is likely to present itself. However, as a contrarian trader I have found that the more obvious price levels are the more likely it is that they either will not be tested or they will not offer significant resistance.

It is obvious that Chairman Bernanke and the Federal Reserve have embarked on a massive fiat currency printing campaign which has helped buoy risk assets to the upside. Through a combination of reducing interest rates on safety haven investments like Treasury’s and CD’s, the Federal Reserve has forced conservative investors and those living on a fixed income into riskier assets in search of yield.

This process helps elevate stock prices and creates the desired outcome for the Federal Reserve which involves the perception by average individuals that they are wealthier. The Fed calls this the “wealth effect” and they seem poised to insure that U.S. financial markets continue to ride upon a see of cheap money and liquidity.

Ultimately the Federal Reserve’s most recent announcements have served to help flatten the short end of the yield curve further while providing a launching pad for equities and precious metals. However, issues persisting in Europe could have an adverse impact on the short to intermediate term price action of the U.S. Dollar.

Right now everywhere I look I hear market prognosticators commenting on how hated the U.S. Dollar is and how Chairman Bernanke will not allow the Dollar to appreciate markedly in order to protect U.S. exports and financial markets. I think that the Dollar has the potential to rally in the short to intermediate term. Right now the U.S. Dollar Index appears to be trying to form a bottom.

U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart

Obviously there is good reason to believe that the U.S. Dollar Index could reverse to the upside here. Whether it would have the strength to take out recent highs is unclear, but a correction to the upside not only seems unexpected by most market participants, but it seems plausible based on the weekend news coming out of Greece.

Monday morning the Greek government is set to determine if they will agree to the demands of the Troika in exchange for the next tranche of bailout funds. If the Greek government and the Troika do not come to an agreement, the Euro could sell-off violently.

Additionally there are already concerns about the next LTRO offering from the European Central Bank. The measure is to help provide European banks with additional liquidity, but there are growing concerns that the size and scope of the LTRO could have a dramatic impact on the Euro’s valuation against other currencies. Time will tell, but there are certainly catalysts which could help drive the U.S. Dollar higher.

Another potential indicator that the Dollar could see higher prices in coming days was the largely unnoticed bearish price action on Friday of precious metals. Both gold and silver have been on a tear higher over the past several weeks. Both precious metals have surged since the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain near zero on the short end of the curve through 2014.

However, on Friday gold and silver were both under extreme selling pressure. The move did not get much attention by the financial media. The price action in gold and silver on Friday could be another indication that the U.S. Dollar is set to rally. The daily chart of gold is shown below.

Gold Futures Daily Chart

Obviously the reversal on Friday in gold futures was sharp. The move represented nearly a 2% decline for the session on the price of gold. However, as long term readers know I am a gold bull. I just do not see how gold and silver do not rally in the intermediate to longer term based on the insane levels of fiat currency printing going on at all of the major central banks around the world. The macro case for gold is very strong, but the short term time frame could reveal a brief pullback.

At this point, I suspect a pullback will present a good buying opportunity for those that are patient. However, I think it is critical to point out that this move in gold on Friday could be a signal that the U.S. Dollar is going to find some short to intermediate term strength. If the Dollar does start to push higher, it will likely put downward pressure on risk assets like equities and oil

While Friday’s price action may not mark a top, nearly every indicator that I follow is screaming that stocks are overbought across all time frames. Pair that with the Greece uncertainty and LTRO considerations and suddenly the Dollar starts to look a bit more attractive. Ultimately I am not going to try to pick a top, but the evidence suggests that it might not be too many days/weeks away.

By Chris Vermeulen – Free Weekly Gold Oil ETF Reports & Analysis

Why Forex is Better Than Stock Trading

2012-02-03T06:14:00.001-05:00

Click Here for Why Trading Forex Now Beats The Stock Market

You’ve likely heard the term “Forex” lately — it is becoming the hottest market today, attracting more and more traders around the world. As the stock markets continue to meander, I believe that the strong trends in the forex market will continue, which means this is one of the best times to engage the foreign currency markets as an added investment vehicle to your portfolio.

Over the past few years, I’ve had the opportunity to teach thousands of new and experienced traders the pitfalls of trading foreign currencies and to help them discover the right way to attack these markets.

Today, however, I want to share with you the key reasons you should take advantage of the potential that exists in trading foreign currencies and going forward, I’m going to share more detailed strategies with you.

What is Forex?

Forex stands for Foreign Exchange and is the trading of one currency against another.

At its simplest, trading foreign currency involves two currencies that are traded simultaneously, called a ‘pair’. For example, the EUR/USD pair, trades the Euro against the US Dollar. In this example, a buyer of this pair would ‘buy’ the Euro and simultaneously ’sell’ the US Dollar.

Forex trading takes place through major banks, market makers, and brokerage houses around the world, who together create a marketplace for trading currencies on a near 24/7 basis.

The Forex market is almost always “open”; it is the 7-Eleven of the trading world. It is the largest financial network in the world with a daily average turnover totaling trillions of dollars.

Until recently, the foreign exchange markets were dominated by the big brokers and major banks around the world. Today, the ‘little guys’ have gotten in on the action — and the growth in currency trading has increased from $1.9 trillion to nearly $3 trillion in that short space of time (that’s the average daily turnover in the markets – a 50% growth in turnover).

Why Should You Trade Forex?

First, the Forex markets are highly liquid (in the major pairs) and have a strong tendency to ‘trend’ regardless of what is happening in other markets (stocks, commodities, bonds).

That liquidity also creates constant volatility — and the volatility is where the ability to profit from those trends happens. The greater the volatility, the greater the profit potential (be advised, however, the greater the risk, too).

Second, the stock markets have been beaten down, rallied, fallen, rallied again — and there are strong indications that another ‘fall’ is coming. The uncertainty in these markets is unnerving for buy and hold investors and traders alike.

In the Forex markets, however, traders don’t have to worry about “bull” or “bear” markets — the currencies are always in a trend (whether up, down or sideways) and frequently, when one set of pairs is trending one way, another set of pairs can be trending the opposite way. In addition, there are no restrictions to selling short a pair like there are for selling short stocks.

Furthermore, the financial upheaval driven by the credit crisis and the massive government responses I believe means investing or trading in the stock markets will never be the same – but these same events are helping to create even greater opportunities in the Forex markets.

As interest rates are cut or raised, economies grow or slow, jobs are gained or lost — each of these factors impacts the future value of a currency pair; and as these and other economic factors change, they affect the swings in volatility.

Forex trading is not without risk – and frankly, most people approach the Forex markets completely wrong. I believe the current economic and financial conditions make this one of the best times to take on Forex trading, but only if done correctly.

How Most Traders Incorrectly Approach Forex Trading

While doing research on the current state of the Forex trading landscape, I discovered something surprising:

Losing Forex traders appear to be enamored with ‘winning percentages’ when selecting a forex trading method.

The irony in that statement should be obvious — if the ‘winning percentage’ of the forex method is so important, how can these traders still be net losers?

Because, I believe, winning percentage is the wrong concept to focus on. In fact, I find winning forex traders look for methods that have winning percentages closer to 50-60%. And, they also have one more ’secret’ that losing traders DON’T have.

The difference will probably surprise you – and it’s a big difference, too. The answer should have been obvious, but it isn’t for most traders.

Ask yourself this question: How is it possible that a forex trading system that wins 90% or more of the time can end up a net loser?

The answer?

Losing trades. BIG losing trades. Here’s what I’ve discovered many of those systems (or robots) that claim 90% winning trades aren’t telling forex traders:

When their systems ‘win’, they are making a high number of very small gains.

But when their systems ‘lose’? They wipe out all of the gains and a good percentage of the trader’s account balance, too.

Still, traders flock to these automated systems because, after all, something winning ‘almost’ 100% of the time must be good, right? Not really, no.

See, what most traders don’t get is that the reward to risk ratio in those high win percentage systems is upside down. Traders risk too much capital for too little profit potential.

That’s poor risk management and leads to one becoming a ‘losing’ trader.

Let me illustrate an example, using a ‘typical’ Robot (or automated) trading system, making 5 trades:

Trade 1 – gains 8 pips on 20 mini lots (+ $160)
Trade 2 – gains 8 pips on 20 mini lots (+ $160)
Trade 3 – gains 8 pips on 20 mini lots (+ $160)
Trade 4 – loses 80 pips on 20 mini lots (- $1,600)
Trade 5 – gains 8 pips on 20 mini lots (+ $160)

This is standard practice for automated systems out there that don’t employ risk management. They set stop losses that are far too wide given the reward ratio. Here it’s 10:1 (risking $10 to win $1 – does that make sense?)

Say you had a starting account balance of $10,000 — at the conclusion of these 5 trades, your account balance would be $9,040.

That’s a 9.6% loss even though you ‘won’ 80% of your trades!

We haven’t factored in lot or position size yet, either. I would expect it to be obvious that the trader above is taking on far too much risk. Keep in mind, too, that trading with an automated or robot method, you are unlikely to be able to stop that 80 pip loss unless you happen to be watching it unfold.

Of course, that robot is supposed to make you money ‘while you sleep’ – isn’t it? (That’s what they promise, anyway)

The bottom line is if you aren’t managing risk in every single trade, from determining the correct lot and position size to the right points for your stop losses and your exit strategies, you will NEVER join the elite 5% of successful Forex traders.

Here’s the Forex ‘Secret’

Let’s illustrate a ‘winning’ trader using a Forex trading method (not a robot), who only wins on 60% of their trades, and see if you note right away what their ’secret’ is:

Trade 1 – gains 43 pips on 10 mini lots (+ $430)
Trade 2 – loses 30 pips on 10 mini lots (- $300)
Trade 3 – gains 29 pips on 10 mini lots (+ $290)
Trade 4 – gains 19 pips on 10 mini lots (+ $190)
Trade 5 – gains zero pips on 10 mini lots (+$0)

Again with a starting account balance of $10,000 — this trader would have made a 6.1% gain ($610 net), as opposed to the first trader’s nearly 10% loss.

Yet, this trader only ‘won’ 60% of the time? What happened?

This trader ‘broke even’ on 1 of the 5 trades. No gain. No loss.

What the ‘winning’ trader does is eliminate risk as quickly as possible, thereby ensuring infinite reward (until they liquidate their position). To do this, these traders take aggressive action to move their initial stop losses up to the breakeven point from the outset of a trade, set an initial profit target and, once they are able to eliminate the risk side in the trade, they will manage the profit side of the trade by scaling out in stages at predetermined profit points.

In this way, once the trader has been able to ‘erase’ the risk side, they can focus solely on the profit side – with the worst case scenario being a ‘zero’ gain trade (or, break even).

Now you may not be able to eliminate risk in every single trade; but breaking even on just 1 in every 5 trades can have a significant and positive impact on your account balance.

So, don’t let yourself be fixated on the ‘winning’ percentage of a trading method. As you’ve just seen, that doesn’t guarantee you can be a net winner. Instead, put risk first and profit second. I think you’ll be surprised at the results.

Optimal Profit Strategy for Forex Traders

As we’ve just shown, when it comes to trading Forex, traders typically focus on when to enter the trade, but pay too little attention to protecting their initial position AND too little attention on how to manage and exit the trade.

This is a critical mistake, yet it is one of the simplest concepts in trading.

It should go without saying that as soon as you enter the market with a new position, an initial stop order should be entered to protect the position against an adverse move in the market or an exit strategy should be employed to cover the trade if the market closes adversely. If such a move occurs, as is often the case, you want your position liquidated and to be out of the market with a minimal loss.

The consequences of failing to do this are simple: you will not be successful at trading.

In fact, every trade you put on, you should plan to lose, so that you are sure to place your stop loss order or cover the trade on an adverse close. Otherwise, what would have been a small loss turns into a big loss, turning the entire risk/reward ratio against you.

That being said, where should you place your stop loss? The short answer is, “Where you don’t expect the market to go”; or, more specifically, where the assumption in putting on the trade is no longer valid.

For example, if a long position was entered into after an uptrend or breakout market traded back down to support, an initial stop could be entered below the recent low because if the market does go there, support (as defined by that low) would have failed, and there is no longer any reason to be long the market – so get out! Don’t wait around for it to come back in your favor because the odds are against it.

If the market goes in your favor once the initial stop is in place, then you need a set of rules that will allow you to exit the market profitably. This poses a real dilemma. If you exit too soon, you may secure a small profit, but miss out on all those big moves that occur (and the big profits that go with them). On the other hand, if you wait too long to exit, the market may reverse and take away all of your open profits and even put you into a loss position.

So what do you do? Well, the first thing is to realize that there is no method that can forecast whether or not a particular move will:

* Go against you immediately
* Go up only a little before going back down
* Go up a lot in your favor

For example, after you enter a long trade in an uptrend, there’s absolutely no way to predict what will happen next (contrary to what the so-called “gurus” tell you). Because of this, you absolutely need an exit strategy, because the risk of loss is significant no matter how carefully you plan your entries and exits.

The Optimal Profit Exit Strategy

The following is the very best exit strategy that I believe possible when trading the Forex markets. I call it the Optimal Profit Exit Strategy.

It’s a strategy that scales out of a trade in two steps. This strategy is first and foremost about taking an initial profit as soon as appropriate, thereby “taking some money off the table” and reducing the risk in the trade at the same time.

Here’s an example from two recent moves in the EUR/USD – in both cases, I applied my Forex Profit Accelerator method to identify the potential trade, and my Optimal Profit Exit Strategy to show how to manage the trade while its ongoing.
So, don’t let yourself be fixated on the ‘winning’ percentage of a trading method. As you’ve just seen, that doesn’t guarantee you can be a net winner. Instead, put risk first and profit second. I think you’ll be surprised at the results.

Optimal Profit Strategy for Forex Traders

As we’ve just shown, when it comes to trading Forex, traders typically focus on when to enter the trade, but pay too little attention to protecting their initial position AND too little attention on how to manage and exit the trade.

This is a critical mistake, yet it is one of the simplest concepts in trading.

It should go without saying that as soon as you enter the market with a new position, an initial stop order should be entered to protect the position against an adverse move in the market or an exit strategy should be employed to cover the trade if the market closes adversely. If such a move occurs, as is often the case, you want your position liquidated and to be out of the market with a minimal loss.

The consequences of failing to do this are simple: you will not be successful at trading.

In fact, every trade you put on, you should plan to lose, so that you are sure to place your stop loss order or cover the trade on an adverse close. Otherwise, what would have been a small loss turns into a big loss, turning the entire risk/reward ratio against you.

That being said, where should you place your stop loss? The short answer is, “Where you don’t expect the market to go”; or, more specifically, where the assumption in putting on the trade is no longer valid.

For example, if a long position was entered into after an uptrend or breakout market traded back down to support, an initial stop could be entered below the recent low because if the market does go there, support (as defined by that low) would have failed, and there is no longer any reason to be long the market – so get out! Don’t wait around for it to come back in your favor because the odds are against it.

If the market goes in your favor once the initial stop is in place, then you need a set of rules that will allow you to exit the market profitably. This poses a real dilemma. If you exit too soon, you may secure a small profit, but miss out on all those big moves that occur (and the big profits that go with them). On the other hand, if you wait too long to exit, the market may reverse and take away all of your open profits and even put you into a loss position.

So what do you do? Well, the first thing is to realize that there is no method that can forecast whether or not a particular move will:

* Go against you immediately
* Go up only a little before going back down
* Go up a lot in your favor

For example, after you enter a long trade in an uptrend, there’s absolutely no way to predict what will happen next (contrary to what the so-called “gurus” tell you). Because of this, you absolutely need an exit strategy, because the risk of loss is significant no matter how carefully you plan your entries and exits.

The Optimal Profit Exit Strategy

The following is the very best exit strategy that I believe possible when trading the Forex markets. I call it the Optimal Profit Exit Strategy.

It’s a strategy that scales out of a trade in two steps. This strategy is first and foremost about taking an initial profit as soon as appropriate, thereby “taking some money off the table” and reducing the risk in the trade at the same time.

Here’s an example from two recent moves in the EUR/USD – in both cases, I applied my Forex Profit Accelerator method to identify the potential trade, and my Optimal Profit Exit Strategy to show how to manage the trade while its ongoing.

PT1 = Profit Target 1 (your first exit point)
PT2 = Profit Target 2 (your second exit point)

PT1 in the chart above exits ½ of your position at a pre-determined profit target. The profit target is modest, but enough to make the trade worthwhile and the specific level is also dependent on the overall method being used.

Once that initial profit target is hit, you should move the initial stop up for the remaining 1/2 of the position to the lowest low of the past 3 bars for an uptrend trade or the highest high of the past 3 bars for a downtrend trade.

As you can see, in the example above (from my Forex Profit Accelerator method), the first trade would have exited PT1 with a profit of 135 pips (or $1,350 on a standard lot trade) and the second trade would have exited PT1 with a profit of 130 pips (or $1,300 on a standard lot trade).

You’re now out of 1/2 of the trade (in each instance) with a very nice profit and at the same time you are prepared to ride the market as far as it wants to go in your favor for the remaining 1/2 of your position.

PT2 allows you to continue to ride an existing market trend with the remaining ½ of your original position, but you protect it by a trailing stop always based on the lowest low of the past 3 bars (for an uptrend trade).

As the market continues to move up, you would move the stop up with it. This locks in a significant portion of the remaining open profit but also gives the market enough room to trade down a bit without shaking you out of the trade if it moves higher.

As the example chart shows, this added profits of 243 and 191 pips, respectively to the winning trades – an additional $2,430 and $1,910.

With this strategy you should be prepared to take advantage of the market after entering a trade no matter what it does. And that’s a big deal.

Good Trading, Bill Poulos

For complimentary Forex strategies, visit Bill’s Forex 4-Pack, which includes his Optimal Profit Exit Strategy, a Forex Basics course, his Power Forex Profit Principles report and more:

Click here for more info.

PT1 = Profit Target 1 (your first exit point)
PT2 = Profit Target 2 (your second exit point)

PT1 in the chart above exits ½ of your position at a pre-determined profit target. The profit target is modest, but enough to make the trade worthwhile and the specific level is also dependent on the overall method being used.

Once that initial profit target is hit, you should move the initial stop up for the remaining 1/2 of the position to the lowest low of the past 3 bars for an uptrend trade or the highest high of the past 3 bars for a downtrend trade.

As you can see, in the example above (from my Forex Profit Accelerator method), the first trade would have exited PT1 with a profit of 135 pips (or $1,350 on a standard lot trade) and the second trade would have exited PT1 with a profit of 130 pips (or $1,300 on a standard lot trade).

You’re now out of 1/2 of the trade (in each instance) with a very nice profit and at the same time you are prepared to ride the market as far as it wants to go in your favor for the remaining 1/2 of your position.

PT2 allows you to continue to ride an existing market trend with the remaining ½ of your original position, but you protect it by a trailing stop always based on the lowest low of the past 3 bars (for an uptrend trade).

As the market continues to move up, you would move the stop up with it. This locks in a significant portion of the remaining open profit but also gives the market enough room to trade down a bit without shaking you out of the trade if it moves higher.

As the example chart shows, this added profits of 243 and 191 pips, respectively to the winning trades – an additional $2,430 and $1,910.

With this strategy you should be prepared to take advantage of the market after entering a trade no matter what it does. And that’s a big deal.

Good Trading, Bill Poulos

For complimentary Forex strategies, see my Forex 4-Pack, which includes my Optimal Profit Exit Strategy, a Forex Basics course, my Power Forex Profit Principles report and more. Click here to review it.

Technical Indicators To Profit From

2012-02-02T07:48:00.000-05:00

How One Technical Indicator Can Identify Three Trade Setups

Trading using technical indicators -- such as the MACD, for example -- can do one of two things: help you or hurt you.

Elliott Wave International's Jeffrey Kennedy explains what he loves and hates about technical indicators and shows you how he uses them to his advantage in this excerpt from his FREE eBook, The Commodity Trader's Classroom.

I love a good love-hate relationship, and that's what I've got with technical indicators. Technical indicators are those fancy computerized studies that you frequently see at the bottom of price charts that are supposed to tell you what the market is going to do next (as if they really could). The most common studies include MACD, Stochastics, RSI, and ADX, just to name a few.

The No. 1 (and Only) Reason to Hate Technical Indicators

I often hate technical studies because they divert my attention from what's most important - PRICE.

Have you ever been to a magic show? Isn't amazing how magicians pull rabbits out of hats and make all those things disappear? Of course, the "amazing" is only possible because you're looking at one hand when you should be watching the other. Magicians succeed at performing their tricks to the extent that they succeed at diverting your attention.

That's why I hate technical indicators; they divert my attention the same way magicians do. Nevertheless, I have found a way to live with them, and I do use them. Here's how: Rather than using technical indicators as a means to gauge momentum or pick tops and bottoms, I use them to identify potential trade setups.

Three Reasons to Learn to Love Technical Indicators

Out of the hundreds of technical indicators I have worked with over the years, my favorite study is MACD (an acronym for Moving Average Convergence-Divergence). MACD, which was developed by Gerald Appel, uses two exponential moving averages (12-period and 26-period). The difference between these two moving averages is the MACD line. The trigger or Signal line is a 9-period exponential moving average of the MACD line (usually seen as 12/26/9 so don't misinterpret it as a date). Even though the standard settings for MACD are 12/26/9, I like to use 12/25/9 (it's just me being different). An example for MACD is shown in Figure 10-1 (Coffee).

The simplest trading rule for MACD is to buy when the MACD line (the thin line) crosses above the Signal line (the thick line), and sell when the MACD line crosses below the Signal line. Some charting systems (like Genesis or CQG) may refer to the MACD line as MACD and the Signal line as MACDA. Figure 10-2 (Coffee) highlights the buy-and-sell signals generated from this very basic interpretation.

Although many people use MACD this way, I choose not to, primarily because MACD is a trend-following or momentum indicator. An indicator that follows trends in a sideways market (which some say is the state of markets 80% of the time) will get you killed. For that reason, I like to focus on different information that I've observed and named: Hooks, Slingshots and Zero-Line Reversals. Once I explain these, you'll understand why I've learned to love technical indicators.

Keep reading about Hooks, Slingshots, and Zero Line Reversals in The Commodity Trader's Classroom. This free eBook is filled with 32 pages of actionable trading lessons, such as:

How to Make Yourself a Better Trader
How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading
When to Place a Trade
How to Identify and Use Support and Resistance Levels
How to Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading
How to Integrate Technical Analysis into an Elliott Wave Forecast

Download your FREE Commodity Trader's Classroom eBook today!

Free Steve Nison Candlesticks Webcast Jan 31

2012-01-31T06:16:00.000-05:00

"Candlesticks Unleashed" Webcast

Tuesday January 31, 2012 8:30PM Eastern Time

Click Here for Free Registration and Online Attendance

This training webcast reveals how candlestick charts help you make smarter, more confident decisions – from the man who brought candlesticks to Western traders.

A Personal Note From Steve Nison

“My goal is helping you become the best trader possible. How? By showing you how to fully exploit candlestick charts to increase profits and decrease risk. These are the very same techniques I teach at institutional trading departments around the world. The rewards reaped at this session will be immediate and long lasting. I look forward to working with you!” — Steve Nison

About this Webcast Session:

Steve Nison has been inducted into the Traders Hall of Fame

This will be a 60-minute live online web seminar presented by world-famous candle charting guru Steve Nison.

This first-time ever event is called CANDLESTICKS UNLEASHED

This information is geared to all traders and investors regardless of experience or technical expertise, who want to make sure they are using candles correctly. These techniques are specifically designed to be used in all markets (including for timing option trades) and all time frames.

Many people claim to teach candlesticks, but there is only one correct source in the Western world: Nison Candlesticks… candlesticks the right way.

No matter what you trade you can improve your performance with these key topics covered in this high energy, informative and entertaining webinar:

See how Nison Candles will give traders vital timing advantages in entering before the potential big moves start

Discover the two ways most traders lose money

Discover what the candlestick line is telling you about the health of the market so you know exactly when to enter, exit or stand aside

See how to avoid “Profit Leakers” to help you avoid the most common misuses of candlesticks that could cost you big $$$

Participate in the live Q&A to have rock-solid confidence about what you learned at the webinar

Take a one minute trading stress test!

Find out how to get your markets analyzed by Steve Nison so you can use his trading ideas the very next trading sessions

Take a Nison Chart Challenge

You’ll love the fact that these are the secret strategies Steve has taught at the world’s most prestigious trading firms!

Learn to become a market chameleon so you can quickly adapt to new market conditions

Understand why identifying a candlestick signal is only the first part of using candles successfully

Plus Receive These Special Bonuses When You Attend

BONUS #1: Following the webinar, you’ll be granted special access to view the full recording of the entire webinar to review this valuable training and ensure you understand how to implement these new strategies in your own trading!

(Though the webinar will be recorded, the fickleness of technology means we cannot guarantee that the recording will turn out properly. To ensure you don’t miss any of this valuable information we strongly recommend you attend the live version of this session.)

BONUS #2: Multiple Free Prize Drawing – You will have two chances to win free Steve Nison products worth $595. Prize winners will be randomly selected throughout the the session. (Must be in attendance to win)

About Steve Nison

Steve Nison, CMT is uniquely qualified to help you fully exploit the opportunities candlestick charts present to today’s markets. As a renowned author and speaker, he has the distinction of being the first to reveal candlesticks charts to the Western world.

Mr. Nison is not only the acknowledged master of these previously secret candlestick techniques, but is also an expert on Western technical analysis with over 30 years real world experience.

Regarded as one of the most foremost technical analysts in the world, Mr. Nison’s client list includes Fidelity, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NYSE and NASDAQ market makers, hedge funds and money managers. He now teaches the public the same secret strategies previously reserved only for his institutional clients.

His work has been highlighted in The Wall Street Journal, Worth Magazine, Institutional Investor and Barron’s.

He has presented his trading strategies in 20 countries to traders from almost every investment firm on how to apply – and profit from – these methods. He has also lectured at numerous universities. And he was guest speaker at the World Bank and the Federal Reserve.

Click here to review more candlestick information, resources, and trading software.

Short-Selling High Performance Graphics Company

2012-01-30T04:42:00.000-05:00

This week I’ve got a low-risk high-reward short-sell on Nvidia. The DJIA, SP500, and Nasdaq indicies are beginning to hit major resistance now. It looks like to me everyone is fully invested into the DJIA dividend blue chips, with the SP500 stocks looking like more distribution than accumulation is starting to happen, and the Nasdaq stocks looking very strong like they could be the new place to be this year on a case by case basis I should add. A correction is in order here, but the trend is your friend until it changes and the trend is still up but looking very weak and tired at this point.

Zacks Investment Research reports that’s Ace chip maker Nvidia Corp. is set to deliver a weak fourth quarter owing to softness in its Graphics Processing Unit (:GPU) business arising from lower PC shipments. Weaker GPU business has also affected another tech behemoth and arch rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s fourth quarter results.

Advanced Micro reported a 9.9% decline in GPU business during the quarter and also guided an 8.0% (+/- 3%) sequential decrease in revenues for the upcoming quarter.

Major PC makers, such as Hewlett-Packard Co. and Dell Inc. reported lower PC shipments due to shortages of hard disk drives (HDDs). Company officials are of the opinion that disk drive shortage resulting from the flooding in Thailand is having a higher-than-expected impact on the mainstream GPU segment.

Apart from lower shipments, it was noted that some OEMs (original equipment manufactures) are not using graphic chips to mitigate the higher prices of HDDs. Avoidance of graphic chips are allowing the OEMs to keep the prices of PCs in a marketable range.

Nvidia now expects fourth quarter 2012 revenue to be $950.0 million (+/- 1.0%), compared with the original expectation of $1,066.0 million (+/- 2.0%). The guidance reflects 10% to 12% sequential decline.

Nvidia also stated that it does not expect the Tegra 2 mobile chip business to perform well, due to a higher-than-expected sales decline. However, the company remains positive about the newly-launched quad-core Tegra 3 chip (the world's first quad-core processor for smart phones and tablets), which is the successor to Tegra 2.

In its last quarter, Nvidia posted a marginal sequential growth in its GPU business, driven mostly by Desktop GPU revenue growth but offset by Chipset revenue and Notebook GPU revenue decline.

Overall, Nvidia’s last quarter was decent with year-over-year revenue and earnings growth. The quarter’s earnings per share were 5 cents above the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Though lackluster PC shipment (research firm Gartner estimated that HDD shortage will significantly impact PC shipments in the first half of 2012 and will likely continue throughout the year) and increased competition are concerns, we believe that higher demand for smart phones and notebooks could provide an impetus for revenue growth.

Currently, NVIDIA holds a Zacks #3 Rank, implying a short-term Hold rating.

We are recommending a short-sale on this currently.

Sell Short NVIDIA – Ticker NVDA

Sell Entry: 15.28 to 14.78

Stop-Loss: 16.50

Take Profit Areas: 13.11 to 12.85, 12.56 to 12.29, 10.86 to 10.62, 7.64 to 7.46, 5.28 to 5.12

Company Profile

NVIDIA Corporation provides visual computing, high performance computing, and mobile computing solutions that generate interactive graphics on various devices ranging from tablets and smart phones to notebooks and workstations. It operates in three segments: Graphic Processing Unit (GPU), Professional Solutions Business (PSB), and Consumer Products Business (CPB). The GPU segment offers GeForce discrete and chipset products, which support desktop and notebook personal computers plus memory products. The PSB segment provides its Quadro professional workstation products and other professional graphics products, including its NVIDIA Tesla high-performance computing products used in the manufacturing, entertainment, medical, science, and aerospace industries. The CPB segment offers Tegra mobile products, which support tablets, smartphones, personal media players, Internet television, automotive navigation, and other similar devices. This segment also licenses video game consoles and other digital consumer electronics devices. The company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, add-in-card manufacturers, consumer electronics companies, and system builders worldwide that utilize its processors as a core component of their entertainment, business, and professional solutions. NVIDIA Corporation was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Click here to review different investing trading software that scans analyzes stocks for different technical fundamental criteria, and low-risk high-reward trade pattern setups.

Click the Nvidia stock chart below for a larger view.

World Class Trader Double Digit Returns

2012-01-26T06:14:00.000-05:00

S&P 500 in 2011 returned 0%, while THIS generated 40.18%

Just over one year ago, on Dec 1, 2010, John Thomas decided to prove he could turn average Joe investors into world-class traders.

As a result, traders trading alongside John in his coaching program and trading service, Macro Millionaire, are sitting on a 40.18% gain vs. the S&P 500’s 0% in 2011.

It’s no wonder, either.

Over the years, even Wall Street Titans like Paul Tudor Jones and George Soros have PAID to have John consult on their hedge funds.

You can click here to see John explain what it takes to be a world-class trader.

But there’s bad news: As of next Wednesday—February 1, 2012—John’s publisher is
closing the doors to new membership to Macro Millionaire.

You have 7 days left to take a RISK-FREE TEST-DRIVE of Macro Millionaire.

If you choose to test-drive the service, then: You’ll get mentored by the man who spent 10 years at Morgan Stanley as their consultant to the hedge fund industry. Wall Street titans PAUL TUDOR JONES and GEORGE SOROS paid to have him consult for
their hedge funds.

You’ll get mentored by the man who FOUNDED Wall Street’s original dedicated international hedge fund, which he ran with great success through the 1990s.

He saw the tech bubble coming, sold his hedge fund and—with brilliant timing—moved his personal wealth almost entirely into commodities in time to catch the 9-year bull market.

You’ll get mentored by the man who helped his friend, oil tycoon T. BOONE PICKENS, organize financing for a Mesa Petroleum Pac Man oil company takeover in the early 80s, when it was cheaper to drill for oil on the floor of the New York Stock
Exchange than in the field.

You’ll get mentored by the man who spent a decade being mentored by BARTON BIGGS, who now runs the MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR hedge fund Traxis Partners and is widely considered one of the top global investing strategists in the world.

At the very least, I suggest you listen to what John’s trading video reveals about what it really takes to succeed as a trader. Do it before this video is taken down forever. Click here to watch this presentation.

PLUS, if you test-drive Macro Millionaire in the next 7 days, you’ll also get
the service with a cumulative return of 4,344.17% since inception – FREE!

As part of this farewell tour for new membership in Macro Millionaire, Market Authority, John’s publisher, is giving away a special bonus gift.

Take a risk-free test-drive of Macro Millionaire before 11:59 p.m. Wednesday, February 1, 2012, and, as a FREE GIFT, you’ll also get the options trading service that has won on 8 out 10 trades since 2007.

With staggering cumulative returns on closed positions, these are from real recommendations of this service:

2007 up 23%
2008 up 470.29%
2009 up 594.62%
2010 up 2,705.45%
2011 to end of October up 1,052.54%

All in all, generating a cumulative return of 4,344.17% for its members

For the next 7 days, you’ll get a three-month membership in a mystery options service as a FREE GIFT, just for test-driving Macro Millionaire before the February 1 deadline.

The only thing you have to do to get this second service for FREE is take a RISK-FREE test-drive of John Thomas’s Macro Millionaire—the service
putting up 40.18% returns for individual investors in a year when the S&P 500 laid a goose-egg.

Click here to find out about the test-drive.

You can TEST-DRIVE Macro Millionaire for a FULL 60 days, RISK-FREE BEFORE making your final decision.

This is an easy decision because you don’t need to reach a final conclusion today on whether you really want to join Macro Millionaire—you can just test-drive and experience the program for yourself.

Let one of the top-performing hedge fund managers in the world coach you for two months. You get a full 60 days, risk-free.

Follow his trades as he makes them live in the market. He’s handed traders who took him up on this offer just over a year ago about a $4 profit for every $10 in their trading accounts while the S&P 500 delivered $0.

Let the founding father of the international hedge fund industry spend 60 days mentoring YOU into a world-class trader who finally makes real money—no matter what the market is doing—BEFORE you even have to decide if it’s right for you.

If you think there is even the slightest chance you’d be better off financially if you have a top performing hedge fund manager mentor, coach and trade alongside you, then pull the trigger and take this risk-free, 60-day test-drive.

If nothing else, I seriously believe watching this presentation will have an immediate and positive impact on your trading and your profits.

Remember, if you want to try Macro Millionaire, you only have 7 days before John’s
publisher closes the doors forever. The good news: Right now, when you take a RISK-FREE TEST-DRIVE, you’ll get the options trading service with a cumulative return of 4,344.17% and has won 8 out of 10 trades since 2007.

Just click here now for details.

Profitable Trading Opportunities Using Fibonacci

2012-01-25T06:45:00.000-05:00

Learn to Find Trading Opportunities Using Fibonacci in This Free eBook

Elliott Wave International has just released a free 14-Page eBook, How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading. Created from a $129 two-volume set, it’s available free until February 6. Click the link above to learn more.

Trading Opportunities

You may be missing trading opportunities that are staring you in the face. The charts you look at every day could reveal high-confidence trade setups and market turning points, and you can learn how to find them, today.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) has just released a free eBook, How You Can Use Fibonacci to Improve Your Trading.

It features 14 chart-filled pages that explain Fibonacci and provide practical tools to help you formulate and execute your own trading strategy by combining wave analysis with Fibonacci relationships. You’ll never look at charts the same way again!

Created from a $129 two-volume eBook by EWI, this valuable report is offered free until February 6.

Don’t miss out on this opportunity to learn how Fibonacci can change the way you trade forever.

Click here to download your free eBook now.

Plugging Your Trading Profit Leaks

2012-01-24T06:18:00.000-05:00

Click here to join the 60-minute live online web seminar presented by world-famous candle charting guru Steve Nison January 31, 2012

Smart traders are always fine-tuning their skills.

Because no matter what they trade, there's always money left on the table.

You may get out of good trades too early... or get into bad trades that drain your account.

I call them "profit leaks."

Yes, every trader has them.

Fortunately, fixing most of those profit leaks can be fast and easy for anyone.

One of the world's top analysts is now focusing on helping the average trader plug those leaks.

His name is Steve Nison.

You probably know him as the premier candlestick charting guru.

For more than 30 years traders have been flocking to Steve to learn his unrivaled candlestick strategies.

That's because using candlesticks the right way can help you plug those profit leaks.

Steve just posted a new video that shows you how you can start benefiting from his proven candlestick strategies overnight.

Click here to watch Steve's video here:

You will also learn how you can get additional free training to:

* How to take a trading "stress test" to determine your trading health

* Discover how you can learn the same secret strategies Steve has taught at the world's most prestigious trading firms

* Find out how you can win one of Steve's powerhouse training products worth $595

Click here to go check it out now before you forget . . .

Click here to review more Candlestick information, resources and software.

Making a Phone Call and Text Message to Sell

2012-01-23T06:02:00.000-05:00

Click Here To Review and Compare Different Trading Software's

Kung Hei Fat Choi! Happy Chinese New Year in the Year of the Water Dragon!

This week my stock pick is a low-risk high-reward sell on MetroPCS wireless communications company. I'm seeing major upside resistance currently in the DJIA, SP500, Nasdaq as well as other major global indicies right now at least in the short-term. Lets watch and see what the markets are going to do this week to determine a more clear intermediate to long-term trend if possible.

Zacks Investment Research says despite the growing popularity of no-contract plans, MetroPCS Communications (NYSE:PCS - News) failed to impress the market, with lower-than-expected subscriber additions in the recently completed fourth quarter. The company reported 175,000 net new subscribers during the fourth quarter as opposed to market expectations of 214,000–250,000. However, on a year-over-year basis, MetroPCS registered subscriber growth of approximately 7%.

The company’s churn rate deteriorated to 3.7% from 3.5% in the year-ago quarter but fared better than the market expectation of 4.0% to 4.2%.

Unlike tier 1 carriers like AT&T and Verizon that have reportedly registered strong sales in the fourth quarter, MetroPCS and other tier 2 carriers like Leap Wireless seem to lack the desired momentum in a highly competitive wireless market. Given the slowdown in the economy and resultant weakness in consumer spending, as well as the clear dominance of tier 1 carriers, the going is likely to be tough for these players.

Low cost carriers like MetroPCS have shown year-over-year improvement, yet stiff competition from market leaders is likely to eat into their market share at least in the near term.

Additionally, MetroPCS has been increasingly challenged by the aggressive rollout of competitive price plans by some of its larger rivals to capitalize on the attractive growth opportunity in the prepaid segment. The ongoing consolidation in the wireless industry through mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures is also making competition stiffer.

The biggest challenge for MetroPCS would likely be its CDMA network platform. Though the company started upgrading its 4G LTE coverage in early 2012, the majority of its services continues to run on a relatively obsolete CDMA network platform, resulting in increasing churn rates over the past few quarters.

While MetroPCS is not in contention for Apple’s iPhones, the company remains a beneficiary of the Android eco system. In fact Google’s Android smartphones constitute roughly 50% of its total device sales.

Going forward, recent trends indicate an uncertain outlook for MetroPCS and it does not look like the company will see significant subscriber additions. Also, subscriber additions are largely dependent on its ability to implement long-term plans like the deployment of 4G services in the majority of its markets.

MetroPCS remains focused on launching the “4G LTE for All” program in the second half of this year and expects to capture significant market share by year-end. Most of the network installation work is slated for completion by the end of this year, implying that the company would be able to support over 10 million subscribers.

Given the rapidly developing market for 4G LTE, the company plans to deploy affordable VoLTE (Voice over LTE) enabled smartphones in early 2012 to shift its customers from the existing 3G CDMA platforms to 4G networks.

The company believes that the introduction of VoLTE handsets will result in the decline in smartphone prices to the $99–$150 range from the $199-$299 range, which will in turn increase the penetration of LTE services in the mass market. MetroPCS’ affordable smartphone offerings should help it pick up additional market share in this environment.

Zacks maintains a long-term Neutral recommendation on MetroPCS.

Invest2Success is calling for a short-sell opportunity right now on MetroPCS.

Short-Sell MetroPCS - Ticker PCS

Sell Entry: 9.37 to 8.64

Stop-Loss: 10.11

Take Profit: 7.83 to 7.70, 7.31 to 7.19, 6.25 to 6.13, 4.83 to 4.75

Company Profile

MetroPCS Communications, Inc., a wireless telecommunications carrier, together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless broadband mobile services in the United States. Its services include voice services, such as local, domestic long distance, and international call services; and data services, including domestic and international text messaging, multimedia messaging, mobile Internet access, mobile instant messaging, location based services, social networking services, push e-mail, and multimedia streaming and downloads, as well as services provided through the binary runtime environment for wireless (BREW), Blackberry, Windows, and the Android platforms, including ringtones, ring back tones, games, and content applications. The company also offers custom calling features consisting of caller ID, call waiting, three-way calling, and voicemail services. In addition, it sells mobile handsets. The company offers its products and services under the MetroPCS brand name, directly through the company-operated retail stores and indirectly through independent retail outlets, as well as through Internet. As of December 31, 2010, it served approximately 8.1 million subscribers, as well as operated 159 retail stores primarily in the metropolitan areas of Atlanta, Boston, Dallas/Fort Worth, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Orlando/Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Sacramento, San Francisco, and Tampa/Sarasota. The company is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.

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Morningstar Individual Investor Conference Jan 21

2012-01-20T08:28:00.001-05:00

Click Here for a Morningstar Investment Research Free Trial

January 21, 2012 - All Sessions Are Scheduled for Central Standard Time

9:00–9:50 a.m. Keynote

Where Is the Market Now?

As a value investor, Joel Greenblatt developed the "Magic Formula Investing" strategy, which focuses on stocks with a high earnings yield and a high return on invested capital. Following his philosophy, he's achieved solid returns at Gotham Asset Management and has rolled out a suite of mutual funds. In this session, Joel will put current market valuation levels into historical perspective and discuss the edge that a systematic value-weighted investing strategy can offer over traditional indexing and active fund management.

10:00-10:50 a.m. Breakout Session A

Boost Your Benefits in Retirement

Do paperwork and policies have you confused about your long-term benefits? In this session, experts Mary Beth Franklin and Mark Miller detail practical Social Security strategies, the ins and outs of long-term care insurance, Medicare/Medigap policies, and more.

Breakout Session B

Maximize Finances in Your Peak Earnings Years

If you're juggling a demanding career, saving for your children's education, investing for retirement, and assisting your parents with their own financial affairs, it's difficult to find time to uncover the right investment opportunities. In this session, you'll see how to keep all your investments on track without heavy, hands-on involvement; you'll also learn tips for balancing competing financial priorities. Speakers include Mark Balasa, Leisa Brown Aiken, and Laura Pavlenko Lutton.

11:00-11:50 a.m. General Session

Tune Up Your Portfolio for the New Year

Is your portfolio balanced? Morningstar's Christine Benz helps you explore asset allocation strategies (stock, bond, cash, international), sector exposure, and other data using Morningstar Premium research and tools to uncover your portfolio's strengths and weaknesses. She'll also share what market sectors look cheap and which look dear based on Morningstar's bottom-up research.

12:00-1:00 p.m. Lunch

Provided On-Site

Morningstar Premium Tour

Learn how to leverage your Morningstar Premium membership.

Conference One-on-One

Meet the speakers and learn more about other conference attendees.

1:00-1:50 p.m. Breakout Session A

Secure Your Retirement "Paycheck"

Morningstar's Christine Benz helps you establish a sane, sustainable withdrawal plan using a total return approach. She'll show how using retirement "buckets" can help you craft your stock/bond/cash mix.

Breakout Session B

Smart Diversification Strategies

Beyond stocks and bonds, which asset classes are top picks for diversification, and how can you best employ them? In this session, you'll learn about alternative investment strategies, how to pick an alternative fund, and how to incorporate these investments in your portfolio. Speakers include William Harding, Nadia Papagiannis, and Tim Strauts.

2:00-2:50 p.m. Strategy Session

Top Picks for Income and Growth

Morningstar strategists discuss promising securities and portfolio builders for today's market. If you're looking off the beaten track, our experts also uncover "unloved" funds in out-of-favor areas that have proven successful. Panelists include W. Scott Burns, Russ Kinnel, Paul Larson, and Josh Peters.

Booking Profits with the Daily Momentum Trader

2012-01-18T06:09:00.000-05:00

Click Here for a Free 60 Day Trial of the Daily Momentum Trader

OK, now’s the time . . . the Daily Momentum Trader advisory is now LIVE!

Get it here right now by clicking the link above.

This is your opportunity to lock in a limited-risk, 60-day trial of Dr. Adrian Manz’s daily day trading recos. If you’ve wanted to try your hand at becoming a full-time trader, or just want lock in bigger profits, this could be your best bet!

60 Day Risk-Free Test-Drive

You get 60 full days to test-drive every one of Dr. Manz’s day trading recommendations. If you don’t make consistent profits following these detailed, step-by-step trading recommendations, you’ll get back every penny you paid for the
service—no questions asked.

One more thing: The cost of this trading advisory is so low—the equivalent of just $166 a month—it may not last. The publishers are already talking about doubling it.

Our Suggestion

Try it out immediately, while you can lock in this low launch price and take advantage of the 60-day trial. Day trading NYSE stocks can provide you with significant potential income. This is a good way to get started quickly.

Click here to review more information and take advantage of the free 60 day trial.

Maximize Your FX Trading Online Course Jan 18

2012-01-17T05:31:00.000-05:00

Intensive Online Forex Trading Course Starts January 18, 2012

It's one thing to know how something works but quite another to make it work for you. Trading the world's forex markets is no exception, which is why I'm about to tell you about a very special learning opportunity exclusively for YOU, an active currency trader.

Jim Martens, Elliott Wave International's senior currency strategist and the former technical analyst for a George Soros-affiliated hedge fund, was bullish the buck in November 2009 -- when the opinion was extremely unpopular. Jim stuck to his convictions, because he trusted his method. His Elliott wave analysis signaled a monster move up in the dollar, and that's exactly what happened.

The greenback staged a multi-month rally that rebuffed all fundamental logic and pushed the dollar to gain more than 21% over the euro. The reversal stunned many forex traders, but not Jim.

Jim's understanding of the Wave Principle was crucial in helping him -- and in turn his subscribers -- catch the dollar's monumental reversal. Now, he's offered to teach you how he did it.

Martens and Jeffrey Kennedy, one of EWI's most experienced analysts and trading instructors, have compiled the most useful, informative and downright cutting-edge forex tutorial for Elliott wave traders you'll ever come across. Together, they will teach you the invaluable skills you need to become a better wave analyst and a winning forex trader.

Without leaving your home or office, you will immerse yourself in 4 engaging online sessions with Martens and Kennedy. Each session serves up a set of invaluable tips, tools and techniques you will not find elsewhere. Each session will move you closer to the "next level" -- where you want to be as a successful forex trader.

If you want to kick your forex trading into high gear, if you want to absorb the very best forex trading education EWI has to offer, this is your opportunity. See if it's what you've been looking for.

Jim Martens and Jeffrey Kennedy have over 40 years of combined market experience and hundreds of hours of teaching experience, so you can be assured their teachings are not only actionable; they're market-tested.

Get your forex trading new year off to the right start!

Click here to review and register for this Intensive Online Forex Trading Course Starting January 18, 2012

Click here to review more Elliott Wave information, resources, and trading software.

Taking a Short-Sell Cruise

2012-01-16T07:01:00.000-05:00

This Week Stock Pick

I have a low-risk high-reward short sell on Carnival Cruise Lines this week. After reviewing the DJIA, SP500, Nasdaq, and global index charts, I'm seeing potential downside now short-term, and very possibly extending intermediate to long-term with the uncertainty in many global economies and markets. The markets have had a nice upside bounce which are looking overbought now, so a correction of some amount is in order here. The question is now, if there is a sell-off, will it be short-term or last much longer?

Zacks Investment Research reports that Carnival Corporation stated its fourth quarter 2011 adjusted earnings of 28 cents per share, in-line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly earnings deteriorated from the year-ago quarter earnings of 31 cents. For full fiscal 2011, earnings per share were $2.42 versus $2.47 recorded in the year-earlier quarter.

Carnival’s fourth quarter total revenue increased 5.7% from the prior-year quarter to $3,696 million which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,786.0 million. For full-fiscal 2011, revenues were $15.8 billion, up 9.0% year over year.

On a constant currency basis, net revenue yields rose 1.5% in the fourth quarter from the prior-year quarter. Gross revenue yields rose 0.3% at current dollars. Net cruise costs, excluding fuel per available lower berth day (:ALBD), were down 1.8% year over year on a constant dollar basis. Fuel price of $680 per metric ton was up 39.0% year over year.

Segment Revenue

Passenger Tickets: Revenue increased to $2,821.0 million from $2,666.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Onboard and Other: Revenue increased to $847.0 million from $791.0 million in the prior-year quarter.

Tour and Other: Revenue from the segment declined to $28.0 million from $40.0 million in the year-ago quarter.

Financial Position

At quarter end, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $450 million, long-term debt of $8.1 billion and shareholder equity of $23.8 billion.

First Quarter 2012 Guidance

Management expects net revenue yield on a constant dollar basis to increase 1.5% to 2.5% (earlier up .0% to 2.0%). Net cruise costs per ALBD, excluding fuel are expected to be up 3.5% to 4.5% on constant dollar basis primarily due to the higher number of dry-dock days and related costs versus the prior year.

Fuel costs for the first quarter are expected to increase $93 million year over year, costing an additional 12 cents per share. Based on current fuel prices and currency exchange rates, the company expects fully diluted earnings in the range of 6 cents to 10 cents per share.

Full Year 2012 Guidance

Carnival Corporation expects net revenue yield to increase 1% to 2% on a constant dollar basis. Net revenue yield on a current dollar basis is estimated to be down 1.5% to 0.5%.

However, net cruise costs per ALBD, excluding fuel, are projected to be down 0.5% to up 0.5% on a constant dollar basis. Net cruise costs per ALBD, excluding fuel, are projected to be down 3.0% to 2.0% on a current dollar basis.

Fuel expenses are estimated at $650.0 per metric ton. Carnival has raised its non-GAAP earnings range to $2.55 to $2.85 per share, from its previous outlook of $2.40 to $2.44.

During 2012, the company will introduce three new ships. Costa Fascinosa is scheduled for delivery in April, while AIDAmar and Carnival Breeze are scheduled for delivery in May.

Our Take

Carnival has improved its earnings outlook for full-fiscal 2012. The company is also experiencing strong booking volumes leading into wave season which is the crucial business period for cruise companies.

We believe that a strong balance sheet and solid cash generation capacity should bode well for Carnival. The company is poised to experience solid long-term growth in an improving economy, marked with slow industry capacity growth and reviving consumer demand. Capacity growth for Carnival will likely decelerate in 2012 as opposed to 2011 and 2010. The company also recently implemented a fuel derivative program to mitigate significant increases in fuel prices.

On the flip side, shooting fuel prices and a greater exposure to a sluggish European market are the near-term challenges to the company.

Carnival, which competes with Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. currently retains a Zacks #4 Rank (short-term Sell rating). We also reiterate our long-term Neutral recommendation.

Short Sell Carnival Cruise Lines – Ticker CCL

Sell Entry: 36.55 to 34.28

Stop-Loss: 39.47

Take Profit Areas: 30.19 to 29.53, 28.82 to 28.18, 24.82 to 24.18, 17.18 to 16.66, 11.30 to 11.07

Company Profile

Carnival Corporation operates as a cruise and vacation company. It provides cruises to various vacation destinations with a portfolio of cruise brands comprising Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn in North America; and AIDA Cruises, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Ibero Cruises, and P&O Cruises in Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company also involves in operation of hotels, as well as offers tour and transportation services. It operates approximately 98 ships, as well as owns and operates 15 hotels or lodges that include 3,420 guest rooms; 395 motorcoaches; and 20 domed rail cars. The company sells its cruises through travel agents, including wholesalers and tour operators. Carnival Corporation was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

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Trading for a Living

2012-01-12T06:22:00.000-05:00

The Ultimate Trading Plan

Click Here On How To Trade & Earn 5% A Month

If you’ve ever wanted to become a full-time day trader and actually live off of your trading profits, then you simply must drop everything you’re doing, right now, and watch this new video by Dr. Adrian Manz.

That’s because Dr. Manz lives the day trading dream. He’s been a full-time professional day-trader since 1998. And if you did what he shares in today’s free video, you could’ve potentially gone SIX YEARS without a losing month!

Click here to watch the video right now.

Trading Large-Cap Stocks Is NOTHING Like You Think it Is!

Not only that, but Dr. Manz is a trader who started with very little money and now owns three homes, including a California beach house. He lives a globe-trotting lifestyle most people never get to experience.

Dr. Manz DOESN’T “swing for the bleachers.” Instead, he quietly skims off quarters, fifty-cent pieces and the occasional buck off of trending stocks.

This systematic, low-stress approach netted Dr. Manz 53.2 basis points in 2011 (on a $30K account trading 300 shares at a time).

With the same trading parameters, he netted 41.24% in 2010… 34.8% in 2008… 88.4% in 2008… and 84.8% in 2007… and 42.89% in 2006.

Check out the video by clicking here.

Your Money and the European Debt Crisis

2012-01-11T06:55:00.001-05:00

A look back on 18 months of analysis and reports on the European Credit Crisis

In 1999, 11 European countries surrendered their currencies for the euro and a shared monetary authority. Barely a decade later, the once-celebrated EU is in the midst of a credit crisis and its currency is facing collapse.

Elliott Wave International's analysts have been anticipating and tracking the credit contagion across the European nations for the past two years. EWI subscribers were first alerted to the still-developing European debt crisis back in December 2009.

The following is excerpted from a December 2010 report from The European Debt Crisis, a new report from EWI. This free report provides important analysis from February 2010 through today that helps you understand what the European economic crisis can mean for your investments. Plus, you'll get a unique perspective on what's ahead. Find out how to access this free report below.

The Credit Crisis Spreads -- December 2010

The credit crisis is escalating as expected. Back in January 2010, when ratings agency Moody's bestowed "investment grade" status on a widely followed index of sovereign bonds, The European Financial Forecast argued that a renewed Primary-degree decline would in fact aim the credit crisis directly at this critical new realm. Our case for the looming sovereign debt debacle rested primarily on two pieces of evidence: (1) Primary wave 3 (circled) had begun in Europe's peripheral markets, and (2) premiums for credit-default swaps on European sovereigns (think of an insurance policy against a national default) were already signaling the next phase of the crisis by surpassing their 2008-09 price extremes. The February 2010 issue of EFF published a chart showing rising Greek, Spanish and Italian swaps and offered this description of how Europe's credit crunch would escalate: "The theme during Primary wave 1 (circled) was default at the individual, corporate and quasi-government level. The theme for Primary wave 3 (circled) will be default at the sovereign level."

Today, the credit crunch is clearly angling itself away from mere corporations and toward whole countries. On November 15, Bloomberg announced the escalation with this headline:

Companies Safer Than Sovereigns as Crisis Cracks 'Old Order' -- Bloomberg, November 15, 2010

London credit strategist Greg Venizelos tells Bloomberg that the "old order" was the one where investors believed large sovereign nations to be better credit risks than corporate borrowers. However, debt is being repriced, he says, and today "corporates are now better credit quality than sovereigns in the periphery." Indeed, swaps on Italian government bonds are more expensive than 75% of the Italian companies contained in the iTraxx Europe Index of European corporations. In Spain, traders deem Spanish sovereign debt to be riskier than all six Spanish companies in the index. Even in the supposedly safe core European country of France, 5-year swaps tied to French government bonds climbed to an all-time high of 105 basis points in November. At that level, more than half of the 25 French companies in the iTraxx index trade tighter than the French sovereign, according to Bloomberg.

The chart above shows another way to view the escalation of the credit crisis. By plotting the difference, or "spread," between swaps on European corporations versus those on European sovereigns, the rising line shows derivative traders' increasing fear over sovereign default relative to corporate borrowers. So, yes, the old order of safer sovereigns is over. But notice, too, that the debt crisis began escalating when the continent's peripheral markets started topping way back in October 2009. The billion-euro question is, "Who is next?" The media is clearly focusing on Portugal, as 5-year credit default swaps tied to Portuguese bonds are setting all-time records. But charts show that so too are swaps tied to Spanish and Italian bonds. Five-year swaps on Belgian debt also reached an all-time high last month. Either one of these countries could be next. Maybe they'll all go down together, but in the larger scheme of things, it doesn't matter. The most important thing to observe is that even core European countries like France and Germany exhibit spiking default insurance premiums, too. These countries are the largest contributors to the $440 billion Facility, the same one that backstops the rest of Europe.

The June 2010 European Financial Forecast said unequivocally that before the storm is over, "at least one, but more likely several, G8 nations will capsize." We stand by our forecast.

The European Debt Crisis is affecting investments across the globe. Gain a valuable perspective on the European debt crisis and get ahead of what is yet to come in this FREE resource from Elliott Wave International.

Click Here to Read Your Free Report Now: The European Debt Crisis and Your Investments

Profitable Stock Chart Trading Patterns

2012-01-10T05:56:00.001-05:00

Click Here To Review the Ultimate Trading Plan Video

Dr. Adrian Manz has discovered what he believes is the Holy Grail of day trading.

He’s identified about 10 proprietary patterns in trending stocks that let him predict, with uncanny accuracy, how these stocks will likely behave in the next day’s trading action.

Unlike most technical or purely mathematical approaches to trading, Adrian’s system is based on his work as a Ph.D. student in group psychology.

Specifically, how groups respond to certain conditions in the stock market.

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The Fine Art of Scalping

Adrian’s trading patterns or “setups” have been wowing traders for the past 14 years. He gives them easy-to-remember names based on baseball, such as Fast Ball, Infield Fly, Line Drive, 3-2 Pitch, Backdoor Slider, Switch Hitter, Double Header, and so on.

If you followed Adrian’s published trade recommendations in 2011, you could’ve posted 389 trades – roughly one per day, on average. Of these 389 trades, 216 were winners, 56 were losers and the others hit break-even.

You could’ve potentially grossed $53.22 per share over the course of the year, which works out to a 53.2% return on a $30K account trading 300 shares, not including fees.

A 53.2% annual return is enough to turn a $100,000 account into $843,905 in just 60 months (before fees) – and into $7.1 million in just 10 years*.

A 53.2% annual return is enough to turn a $100,000 account into $843,905.52 in just 60 months – and into $7.1 million in just 10 years.

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Investing for Healthy Profits

2012-01-09T06:08:00.000-05:00

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I’ve got a new buy long stock pick this on Hain Celestial Group this week. They are a $1.5B organic food products company that processes and sells its products around the world. Looking at the DJIA, SP500, and Nasdaq indicies, I’m seeing more possible upside potential with the Nasdaq and some of the SP500 stocks than with the Dow Jones Industrial big caps. I think the paid to wait collect the dividend idea is already pretty much priced into the large cap dividend payer stocks, and they could be heading lower from here. I think where the positive upside action is now is with smaller growth stocks with strong balance sheets with increasing earnings like The Hain Celestial Group.

Zacks Investment Research reports that being a leader in natural food and personal care products categories with an extensive portfolio of well-known brands, The Hain Celestial Group Inc. offers investors one of the strongest growth profiles in the industry. The stock is poised to rise as the economy gradually revives and appetites for organic foods get bigger.

Having said that, Hain Celestial remains a healthy option for investors. Shares of the company have portrayed a strong upward trend over the past year, giving a return of 34% considering the last traded price of $36.35 on January 3, inching closer to its 52-week high of $38.47.

Supporting the view is the current valuation of the company. On a P/E basis, Hain Celestial’s shares trade at 21.4x, a 51% discount to the 43.9x for the industry average. On a price-to-book basis, the shares trade at 1.8x, which is again at a 45% discount to the industry average of 3.3x.

Moreover, considering the past performance of the company, Hain Celestial has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the last four quarters in the range of 3.6% to 6.1%. The average remains at 5.2%. This suggests that Hain Celestial has topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 5.2% in the trailing four quarters.

We believe that the company remains well positioned to capitalize on the growing global demand for organic products. The U.S. alone has shown an approximately 20% jump in its consumption of organic foods.

Acquisitions have been a key part of the company’s strategy to build market share. Not only have these expanded Hain Celestial’s geographic reach, these have also brought in opportunities to cross-sell its products in the U.S., Canadian, and European markets. Notably, a healthy balance sheet enables the company to target strategic acquisition opportunities.

Following its growth plan, Hain Celestial recently announced the acquisition of Daniels Group, the U.K. based marketer and manufacturer of fresh and frozen foods. The acquisition offers Hain Celestial a gateway to a sturdy food and grocery market that is swiftly gaining ground. Currently, the frozen category represents more than 50% of food sales in U.K.

Further, the company’s strategic initiatives to enhance its portfolio of global brands by acquiring Danival, the manufacturer of certified organic food products with facilities in France, and GG UniqueFiber, the manufacturer of all natural high fiber crackers in Norway, is paying off.

The company’s strong fundamentals and favorable outlook are compelling. We thus, maintain our bullish stance on the stock even in a volatile market. We currently, have a long-term Outperform rating on Hain. However, Hain Celestial, which competes with General Mills and Kraft Foods holds a Zacks #2 Rank that translates into a short-term Buy recommendation.

Buy Long Hain Celestial Group – Ticker HAIN

Buy Entry: 34.73 to 35.61

Stop-Loss: 33.71

Take Profit Areas: 38.55 to 39.59, 40.84 to 41.88, 45.48 to 46.69

Company Profile

The Hain Celestial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells natural and organic products in the United States and internationally. The company offers natural and organic grocery products, including non-dairy beverages and frozen desserts, infant and toddler food, flour and baking mixes, hot and cold cereals, pasta, condiments, cooking and culinary oils, granolas, granola bars, cereal bars, canned, aseptic and instant soups, yogurt, chilis, packaged grain, chocolate, nut butters, nutritional oils, juices, frozen desserts, cookies, crackers, gluten-free frozen entrees and bars, frozen pastas, and ethnic meals. It also provides snack products, such as potato and vegetable chips, organic tortilla style chips, whole grain chips, and popcorn; and specialty tea, including herbal, green, wellness, white, red, and chai teas. In addition, the company offers personal care products, including skin care, hair care, body care, oral care, deodorants, and baby care items, including acne treatment, body washes, and sunscreens. Further, it processes, markets, and distributes prepared foods, such as fresh sandwiches, appetizers, and full-plated meals for distribution to retailers, caterers, and food service providers; and develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells a line of household cleaning products, including laundry detergent and fabric softener, and dish cleaners, as well as glass, bathroom, wood floor, and all purpose cleaners. The company sells its products to specialty and natural food distributors, as well as to supermarkets, natural food stores, mass-market and on-line retailers, drug store chains, food service channels, and club stores. The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.

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Today's 50 Top Trending Stocks

2012-01-05T05:49:00.000-05:00

Click Here to Review Today's 50 Top Trending Stocks

What does a successful trader do that an unsuccessful trader can't seem to master? They quickly find and get in and out of the winning trades with expert precision. What does this better than anyone else? Smart money of course!

Big banks and financial institutions have the capital and agility to persuade large and medium cap stocks to move in a preferred direction. It may sound like they have the upper hand, but individual traders can join them in a move and profit from the ride.

Finding where the smart money is can be similar to a shell game, so how can you find where the smart money is going to strike next? The answer is simple: You find the top trending stocks! Strong trending stocks have major volume, a clear direction, and lots of liquidity - A.K.A where the smart money is. Wouldn't it be nice to find a list of current strong trending stocks?

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Backtesting for High Performance Trading

2012-01-04T05:50:00.000-05:00

By ZuluTrade

A new more sophisticated backtesting tool has been developed by the Zulutrade Team! The all new backtesting tool lets you do more!

Simulate providers performance including custom stop loss or take profit. Eliminate certain currency pairs, or perform any custom settings, and see the results! Compare them with the signal provider's results! Identify ideal stop losses for each provider and protect your account.

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We have tested this new tool in our lab, and realized that in most cases if an ideal custom stop loss had been used, our testing account was performing much better than a provider's account!

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Profitable Trading Goals for 2012

2012-01-02T06:51:00.002-05:00

Successful Investing Trading

I don't have a stock pick this week as I normally do on Monday's. Better, I have a more important article on being a successful investor and trader. I hope you had a Merry Christmas and great New Year 2012 celebration. Wishing you all the success in 2012 and beyond.

Trading Goals for 2012 By Kevin Matras VP Zacks Investment Research

As 2011 comes to a close, and 2012 is ready to begin, it's only natural to start thinking about the year ahead and all of the things you hope to accomplish.

This includes both personal goals and work goals and everything in between.

The key is to decide what you want. And when it comes right down to it, a goal is really just that -- a decision.

Decisions, Decisions

Goals come in all shapes and sizes; big and small, long-term and short-term, simple and complex, etc.

Something as simple as waking up and deciding to go to the store that day is a goal. That probably didn't take a lot of planning. But you did have to write down what you needed to get. And organize your day to make sure you could fit that task into your likely already busy schedule. If you have food in your refrigerator, you can take pride in achieving your goal.

Taking a vacation is a goal. That takes a little more planning. But once you decide you want to take one, all you need to do is determine where you want to go, what you'd like to do, and then make the time to do it.

Goals are not wishes. They are decisions. And once you decide to do something, it's amazing how often those 'decisions' come true.

3 Steps to Investment Success

Financial decisions are no different.

If one of your goals in 2012 is to become a better trader, then decide to be one.

How does one do that? Just like any decision, it only requires a few simple steps to get the ball rolling.

1) Decide what kind of trader you are or want to be.

Do you prefer upward trending momentum stocks or deeply discounted value stocks? High-flying aggressive growth stocks or more mature income producing stocks?

There's no wrong answer.

But this is important because if you find yourself buying stocks that are not in alignment with who you are or want to be as a trader, you'll find yourself abandoning those stocks the moment they hit a rough patch.

The best style of trade is the one that's right for you.

2) The next step is to determine what strategies work best for that style of trade.

In other words, what characteristics have proven to work for those types of stocks? The key word being 'proven'.

For example: some investors incorrectly believe that the best aggressive growth stocks are those with the biggest growth rates. But studies have shown that's not the case. In fact, in my testing, I have found that stocks with the absolute highest growth rates, oftentimes, perform just as poorly as those with the lowest growth rates. How can this be? It's usually because those growth rates are unsustainable. And the moment those sky-high growth rates, which were priced for perfection, have even the slightest downward revision, the stock price can fall back down to earth as well.

I have found that the best growth rate ranges are those that are above the median for their industry and no higher than 50%. That does not mean stocks with growth rates higher than 50% won't go up, because they do. And that doesn't mean that stocks with growth rates in the optimum range won't go down, because they do too. But sticking with stocks with characteristics that have proven to work more often than not will increase your odds of success.

And each style of trade has a set of characteristics that, if followed, will help you pick more winning stocks than losers.

3) The last step is really the easiest and the most fun. And that's doing it.

Once you've decided what you want, and how to go about getting it, then it's time to do it.

And you'll find picking winning stocks has never been easier. Because now that you know what you're looking for, they'll be easier to find.

Think about the last car you bought. Once you decided on what kind of car you wanted, you probably saw them everywhere. They didn't just magically appear. They were always there. You just became aware of them.

And it's the same with stocks. The most profitable stocks that are right for you have always been there. But now you'll be able to spot them.

And nothing is as exciting as waking up each day, and following your proven plan for success.

A long time ago, I read a book on goal setting. And a passage the author wrote stuck with me.

He said: if you want to add meaning and richness to your experience of living, begin now to plan. You only need to set goals for every area of your life. Working toward worthwhile goals and purposes, whatever they may be, makes you feel alive and vibrant.

Wow!

Resolutions for 2012

So take some time this weekend, to decide what your worthwhile goals and accomplishments will be this year.

And start acting on them immediately, because each year seems to go by just a little quicker than the last.

If one of your goals includes becoming a better trader, you might want to consider our Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course. It's an interactive online experience that guides you to better trading step by step. In it, we help you identify what kind of trader you are, how to find stocks with the highest probability of success, and how to trade them so you can consistently beat the market, regardless of what the market is doing. It also goes over some of our best performing strategies from a variety of different trading styles, and it shows you how to create and test your own.

A lot of people jumped on this home study course earlier this week when we offered it at its lowest price ever. That offer expired, but I want to encourage you to make better trading a high priority. So I'm bringing the savings back one more time for Weekend Wisdom readers until the clock strikes midnight and 2012 begins.

Click here to find out about the Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course right now >>

Thanks. Here's to a great new year. Kevin

Zacks VP Kevin Matras is our chart patterns and stock screening expert. He runs the Research Wizard and personally developed many of its built-in market-beating strategies. He also directs the Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course.

Happy New Year from Invest2Success

2011-12-26T06:59:00.000-05:00

Happy Prosperous 2012 To All!

This is my last stock pick for 2011 and it’s a bullish call on VF Corporation. The DJIA, SP500, and Nasdaq indicies all look like the Santa Claus Rally is underway now. For how long this rally will last is hard to say with all of the economic uncertainty globally currently, but I think on selective case by case basis some stocks will do very well in 2012 and possibly beyond. The VF stock chart is in a very nice uptrend, and the fundamentals of strong quarterly earnings surprises are showing in the chart making VF a very nice low-risk high-reward buy-long position this week.

On October 28 Zacks Investment Research reported that VF Corporation carried its momentum into the third quarter and knocked it out of the park once again. The company delivered its 8th consecutive positive earnings surprise on 16% organic revenue growth.

Management raised its guidance for the remainder of 2011, and earnings estimates have been soaring, sending the stock to a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy).

The company also hiked its dividend by 14%, marking its 39th straight year of higher dividend payments.

Third Quarter Results

VF Corporation reported its third quarter results on October 24. It was another excellent quarter for the company. Earnings per share came in at $2.87, crushing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 32 cents. It was a stellar 29% increase over the same quarter in 2010.

Revenues rose 23% to $2.750 billion, ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.620 billion. Revenue was boosted in part by the Timberland acquisition. However, organic revenue growth was still a remarkable 16%.

Each segment achieved strong revenue growth in the quarter. Its largest division, Outdoor & Action Sports, saw organic revenue growth of 22% driven by strong gains in its The North Face and Vans brands.

The gross margin did contract a bit in the quarter from 46.5% to 45.3% of sales, but this was somewhat offset by the leveraging of its fixed expenses.

These factors led to a 21% increase in operating income over the same quarter in 2010.

Raised Guidance

Following another strong quarter, management raised its guidance for the remainder of 2011. The company now expects earnings of $8.15 per share on revenue growth of 22-23%, up from prior guidance of $7.50 per share.

This prompted analysts to revise their estimates for both 2011 and 2012 significantly higher, sending the stock to a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy).

Analysts expect the strong business momentum to continue for at least the next couple of years. Based on consensus estimates, analysts project 27% earnings growth this year and 15% growth next year.

As you can see in the company's Price & Consensus chart, consensus estimates have been soaring over the last several months as the company has delivered 8 consecutive positive earnings surprises:

Raised Dividend

In addition to strong earnings growth, VF Corporation pays a dividend that yields a solid 2.1%. The company announced in its third quarter release that it was increasing its quarterly dividend by 14%.

This marks the 39th consecutive year of higher dividend payments.

The Bottom Line

With earnings momentum accelerating and strong growth and income characteristics, VF Corporation still offers plenty of upside potential.

Buy VF Corporation – Ticker VFC

Buy Entry: 122.99 to 129.13

Stop-Loss: 113.21

Take Profit Areas: 142.89 to 149.09, 154.71 to 161.63, 169.25 to 176.51

Company Profile

V.F. Corporation designs and manufactures, or sources from independent contractors various apparel and footwear products primarily in the United States and Europe. The company offers apparel, footwear, outdoor gear, skateboard-inspired and surf-inspired footwear, backpacks, luggage, handbags and accessories, outdoor apparel, travel accessories, and womens active wear primarily under the Vans, The North Face, JanSport, Eastpak, Kipling, Napapijri, Reef, Eagle Creek, and lucy brands; and denim and casual bottoms, and tops principally under Wrangler, Lee, Riders, Rustler, and Timber Creek by Wrangler brands. Its products also include occupational, athletic, and licensed apparel primarily under the Red Kap, Bulwark, Majestic, MLB, NFL, and Harley-Davidson brands; mens fashion sportswear, denim bottoms, sleepwear, underwear, as well as handbags, luggage, backpacks, and accessories principally under the Nautica and Kipling brands; and denim and casual bottoms, sportswear, accessories, mens apparel and footwear, and womens sportswear primarily under the 7 For All Mankind, John Varvatos, Splendid, and Ella Moss brands. The company sells its products to specialty stores, department stores, national chains, and mass merchants primarily through its sales force, independent sales agents, and distributors. V.F. Corporation was founded in 1899 and is based in Greensboro, North Carolina.

Click here to review different investing trading software that scans analyzes stocks for different technical fundamental criteria, and low-risk high-reward trade pattern setups.

Click the VF Corp stock chart below for a larger view.

Merry Christmas from Invest2Success

2011-12-19T05:49:00.001-05:00

Peace On Earth and Goodwill Toward All Men Women and Children!

All of us at Invest2Success wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas.

This Monday I've got a buy recommendation on Cabot Oil and Gas. Technically and fundamentally Cabot looks like a nice low-risk high-reward currently. After reviewing the global stock indicies, the markets look like they could possibly have a Santa Claus rally here. Long-term I'm still a bear for the broad market, but I'm thinking the September October lows might be retested at some point, and if they do, I can see another bear market upside rally taking place after that. I would then be a buyer for a quick upside pop, but probably not a long-term holder. So far, the markets seem to be staying in the sell-off trading range they been in since September October. There's still plenty of uncertainty out there which the markets are currently showing. Nothing wrong with just holding cash. Its a good trade and investment especially in uncertain times like now.

Zacks Investment Research is maintaining an Outperform recommendation on shares of Cabot Oil & Gas, reflecting its impressive exposure to the high-return Marcellus and Eagle Ford Shale plays, as well as its above-average production growth. Furthermore, the capital infusion of over $200 million bodes well for Cabot, which will help it to bolster its natural gas operations. Buoyed by the growth momentum from the company s drilling efforts, particularly in its North region, Cabot recently reported robust third-quarter results. A relatively low risk profile and longer reserve lives are other positives in the Cabot story. Considering these factors, Zack's believes Cabot is well positioned going forward and consider it an attractive investment.

Company Profile

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation operates as an independent oil and gas company in the United States. The company engages in the development, exploitation, exploration, production, and marketing of natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids. It holds reserves in north region comprising Appalachian and Rocky Mountains areas; and south region consisting of Anadarko basin with Texas and Louisiana areas. The company also transports, stores, gathers, and purchases natural gas for resale. As of December 31, 2010, it had proved reserves of approximately 2,761 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Buy Long Cabot Oil and Gas - Ticker COG

Buy Entry: 71.70 to 75.76

Stop-Loss: 65.47

Take Profit Areas: 89.94 to 92.62, 94.76 to 97.62, 109.51 to 112.78, 137.48 to 141.56, 158.46 to 162.74

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Click the Cabot Oil and Gas stock chart below for a larger view.

Long-Term Markets Forecast Outlook

2011-12-16T04:39:00.000-05:00

Precious Metals, Equities & Oil Long Term Outlook

By the GoldAndOilGuy

It’s that time of year again and I’m not talking about the holiday season… What I am talking about is another major market correction which has been starting to unfold over the past couple weeks.

I have a much different outlook on the markets than everyone else and likely you as well. However, before you stop reading what I have to say hear me out. My outlook and opinion is based strictly on price, volume, inter-market analysis, and crowd behavior and you should put some thought as to what I am saying into your current positions.

My fundamental thinking is also a contrarian one. I feel that gold and silver have risen because of obvious reasons being printing of money but also fears that fiat currenecies will become obsolete in the next 5 years.

The problem with that thinking is that most or all the bad news has come out with Europe and we know there are still major issues to resolve but the end of the world did not happen. Looking forward 5 years countries will have stopped acting like teenagers spending more money they they have on their credit cards and start creating budgets which they will abide by.

What does this mean? It means the global economy as a whole will be stronger than ever before. We may have a few bumps along the way but I feel countries and individuals will be better than ever 5 years from now

Two weeks ago I sent my big picture outlook to my subscribers, followers, and financial websites warning of a major pullback.

Since my warning we have seen the financial markets fall:

SP500 down 2.6%
Crude Oil down 4.4%
Gold down 9.6%
and Silver down 12.2%

If you applied any leverage to these then you could double or triple these returns through the use of leveraged exchange traded funds. The amount of followers cashing in on these pullbacks has been very exciting to hear. The exciting part about trading is the fact that moves like this happen all the time so if you missed this one, don’t worry because there is another opportunity just around the corner.

While my negative view on stocks and precious metals will rub the gold and silver bugs the wrong way, I just want to point out what is unfolding so everyone sees both sides of the trade. I also would like to mention that this analysis can, and likely will change on a weekly basis as the financial markets and global economy evolves over time. The point I am trying to get across is that I am not a “Gloom and Doom” kind of guy and I don’t always favor the down side. Rather, I am a technical trader simply providing my analysis and odds for what to expect next.

Let’s take a look at some charts and dig right in.

Dollar Index Daily Chart:

SP500 Futures Index Daily Chart:

Silver Futures Daily Chart:

Gold Futures Daily Chart:

Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart:

Click here for a profitable gold and silver trading method.

Angela Merkel Torpedoes the Euro

2011-12-15T04:59:00.002-05:00

By John Thomas of the Wealth Insider Alliance

The Euro hit my year end target yesterday after a two cent plunge sent it down to the $1.29 handle. You can thank German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, who in the strongest possible terms, said there was no way she would consent to an increase in the size of the European bailout package.

It didn’t help that in the Federal Reserve comments today they basically ran up the white flag and admitted that there is nothing left for them to do but keep interest rates at “exceptionally low levels” for the foreseeable future. They see moderate growth last pegged at 3%, which means they are about 1% higher than reality. We are left to wait until January 25 for the all-powerful government agency to take longer term measures to help the economy, such are targeting unemployment rates.

I have been happily trading in an out of the Euro from the short side since April, catching almost all of the move down from $1.50, except for the last three cents. There was clearly a lot of new shorts initiated today as the euro broke multi month support levels. To say this is a crowded trade would be a vast understatement, as these new positions are being added to existing ones that are at all-time highs. A recent survey revealed that 67% of all hedge funds are currently running short positions in the Euro.

This is a crummy place to get involved, as the beleaguered European currency is now severely oversold on a short term basis. I want to wait for a four cent rally against Uncle Buck to jump back in the game again. I would be surprised if we plumbed new lows from here, but then this has been a surprising year. Wait until Q1, 2012 before we see a $1.25 print.

It would be easy to sit back and be complacent, believing that this is not our problem. But it is. A recession that Europe’s new austerity is certain to bring, will likely chip 0.5% to 1.0% off of US GDP growth in 2012. Since we are likely growing at a modest 2% rate now, we don’t have a lot to give away. Looking at an American economy that is facing death by a thousand cuts, this is one giant slash.

Click here to become a world class highly profitable trader with John Thomas of the Wealth Insider Alliance.

The Euro Crisis and The UK Recovery

2011-12-14T06:25:00.000-05:00

The Euro Crisis Is 'Single Biggest Threat' to U.K. Recovery

By Bloomberg BusinessWeek

The euro crisis isn’t just affecting economic growth and the real estate industry in the U.K., but may also unleash another credit and mortgage crunch. If you are looking to purchase your first buy to let UK property or to expand an existing portfolio, and or have impaired credit, review best buy to let mortgages with the buy to let centre to achieve the best returns on your real estate investment and thus allowing you to be in the best position to build your portfolio in the future.

Spencer Dale, the Bank of England’s chief economist and member of its rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, pointed to the signs recently. U.K. banks haven’t been able to issue unsecured term debt for most of the second half of this year. That wasn’t a major problem for U.K. banks since they’ve done most of their funding. [They were] pre-funded for most of this year by the time those markets effectively closed.

Still, this may explain why the BOE opened Sterling 30-day credit lines for banks last week—an action unseen from the bank since the 2008 financial crisis. Indeed, Dale said that although there hasn’t been “significant” worsening of credit conditions for households and companies, the U.K. needs funding markets to re-open:

And unless they do relatively quickly, I think there’s a real risk that credit conditions in our economy could tighten further.

So, with the possibility of another credit crunch and a flat-lining economy, the BOE faces a dilemma: should it pump significantly more cash into the economy via quantitative easing to open the credit markets—and risk fanning inflation—or wait and see?

Until we get a better sense of underlying inflation pressures I think there will be a nervousness in terms of the extent to which one should keep on stimulating the economy, Dale said.

Inflation has come down to 4.8 percent, but it’s still more than double the BOE’s 2 percent target and has been above target for 52 of the past 60 months. The BOE is watching to see how quickly inflation slows before considering more stimulus because, as Dale said, the inflation dynamics are uncertain. Such a delay may push the consideration of more QE to after March of next year.

For all the uncertainty about inflation, growth and even QE, or maybe because of it, one thing is clear: the euro crisis may not only erode U.K. growth but could once again plunge its banks and the wider economy into another credit crisis—2008 all over again, without the U.S. subprime mortgages.

Click here to review more financial news resources.

UK Home Price Forecast Cut

2011-12-13T05:59:00.000-05:00

CEBR Cuts U.K. Home Price Forecast, Says Values to Gain ‘Slowly’

By Bloomberg BusinessWeek

The outlook for Britain’s housing market has become more gloomy in recent months as economic growth falters and unemployment rises, according to Centre for Economics and Business Research, which lowered its price-growth forecasts.

Home values will rise 1.6 percent in 2012 after falling 1 percent this year, the London-based group said in an e-mailed statement today. The CEBR, which previously forecast that prices would increase 2.4 percent next year, cut its annual projections through 2015.

U.K. home sellers cut asking prices by the most in a year in November as the escalation of the euro-area debt crisis deterred buyers. While faltering growth and weakening consumer confidence will curb demand, prices will rise 15 percent through 2016 as values are supported by a shortage of homes for sale, according to the CEBR. With the lower UK real estate prices, you can now get the best mortgage deals available in today's market.

“The U.K. has a housing shortage,” CEBR Chief Executive Officer Douglas McWilliams said in the statement. “Both the shortage of supply and the growth in mortgage availability will push up house prices, but only slowly.”

Bank of England policy maker David Miles said this week that the housing market is undergoing an “extraordinary period of adjustment” as transactions decline and mortgage lending drops. Miles said that the ways in which home ownership is financed is changing as banks tighten loan conditions. Many of the changes “will be permanent,” he said, citing plans such as shared ownership, or so-called equity loans.

Cameron Plan

U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said on Nov. 21 that his government will underwrite mortgages for as many as 100,000 new homes, introduce a 400 million-pound ($630 million) fund to reactivate stalled developments and release land for residential use. While the plan may boost values by as much as 2 percent in the first year of operation, its impact after three years will be “broadly neutral,” the CEBR said.

Property prices will climb 2.2 percent in 2013, 2.6 percent in 2014 and 3.2 percent in 2015, the CEBR said. That compares with August forecasts of 3.4 percent, 3.6 percent and 4 percent respectively. The group also sees values rising 4.3 percent in 2016, it said today.

Lombard Street Research said Nov. 22 risks to U.K. values “have shifted to the downside” because of the euro crisis, and that prices may decline for the next few quarters.

“A sharp reversal of prices is not likely, not least because of constraints on the supply-side; but the chance of rising prices by the end of 2012 has become slim,” they said.

U.K. consumer confidence fell to a record low in October as the unemployment outlook worsened and yields of Europe’s most indebted nations rose, heightening concern about the region’s ability to solve the debt turmoil. Data last week showed that the number of unemployed Britons rose to 2.62 million in the third quarter, the most since 1994.

“House building is forecast to grow only slowly over the next four years and consequently, with population growth and falling household size there is likely to be an increasing shortage of accommodation,” the CEBR said today. “This is likely to support rents and property values.”

Click here to review more financial news resources.

Brown-Forman Alcohol Santa Claus Rally

2011-12-12T05:49:00.000-05:00

Click Here to Review Trading Software that Found This Weeks Stock Pick

After reviewing the DJIA, SP500, and Nasdaq indicies, it very possibly looks like a Santa Claus rally could happen this week. I'm still skeptical on a longer-term upside rebound in the markets but short-term its looking more doable currently. If taking any new positions long or short as always use stop-loss in case the market goes against your position.

According to Zacks Investment Research, Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B) reported a record fiscal 2012 second-quarter result, as it is first time in the company’s history that it crossed the $1 billion sales mark.

The company’s reported earnings of $1.09 per share came in line with Zacks Consensus Estimate and grew 3.8% from the year-ago earnings of $1.05.The robust increase in quarterly earnings was primarily driven by strong top-line growth and volume gains.

During the quarter earnings per share grew 8% after excluding the net effect of Hopland-based wine business.

Quarterly Details

Brown-Forman's net sales recorded a growth of 11.9% to $1,013.7 million from $905.7 million in the prior-year quarter. The growth was primarily attributable to solid performance in Germany, Turkey, France, the U.K., Russia, Canada, Australia and Brazil, which was more than offset by declines in Poland and Spain. Total Revenue beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $966 million.

During the quarter, Brown-Forman's gross profit grew 9.4% from the prior-year quarter to $501.9 million primarily driven by increased volumes. However, gross margin contracted 120 basis points (bps) year over year to 49.5% due to increased input and excise costs.

During the quarter, the company made huge advertising expenses in order to support several brand innovation launches. Advertising expenses increased 14.1% year over year to $106.7 million. Selling, general and administrative expenses surged 10.5% year over year to $146.8 million due to increased salary and related expenses. Conversely, Brown-Forman's operating profit grew 4.8% from the prior-year quarter to $246.3 million, while operating margin contracted 160 basis points to 24.3% from the prior-year period.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

Brown-Forman ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $380.1 million and long-term debt of $504.2 million.

During the first six months of fiscal 2012, Brown-Forman generated $155.5 million of cash from operations and deployed $92.4 million for dividend payout, and $18.8 million on capital expenditures. On November 30, 2011, Brown-Forman’s $250 million share repurchase program expired. During the program period, the company repurchased a total of 3.4 million shares for $234 million, at an average price of $69.39 per share.

Dividend

During the quarter, Brown-Forman paid a regular quarterly cash dividend of 35 cents a share on Class A and Class B common stock, an increase of 9.4% over the prior dividend. This is the company’s 28th consecutive year of dividend growth.

Guidance and Zacks Consensus

Moving forward, Brown-Forman expects strong improvement in customer trends in the remaining period of fiscal 2012. However, it also anticipates that the stronger U.S. dollar value may have an adverse impact on its bottom-line. Accordingly, the company has lowered its upper end of earnings guidance. Currently, Brown-Forman expects fiscal 2012 earnings in the range of $3.45 to $3.70 per share instead of $3.45 to $3.85. Currently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate stood at $3.63 per share.

Buy Long Brown-Forman - Ticker BF.B - Short-Term Momentum Trade

Buy Entry: 77.45 - 81.50

Stop-Loss: 73.31

Take Profit Areas: 82.65 - 83.09, 87.47 - 87.91

Company Profile

Brown-Forman Corporation engages in manufacturing, bottling, importing, exporting, and marketing alcoholic beverages. The company offers its products primarily under the brand names of Jack Daniels, Gentleman Jack, Southern Comfort, Finlandia, Antiguo Tequila, Canadian Mist, Chambord, Don Eduardo, Early Times, el Jimador, Herradura, Korbel California, New Mix Ready-to-Drinks, Old Forester, Pepe Lopez Tequilas, Sonoma-Cutrer, Tuaca, and Woodford Reserve. It sells its products to wholesale distributors and state governments. The company markets its products primarily in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Poland, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, Spain, Turkey, South Africa, Russia, Italy, and China. Brown-Forman Corporation was founded in 1870 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

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Accelerating Your Forex Trading Profits

2011-12-08T05:49:00.000-05:00

Click Here for a FREE Forex Video Training

What if it were IMPOSSIBLE TO LOSE once your Forex trade hits a precise goal?

This unusual "trick" reveals how in Video #3 of the new Forex Profit Accelerator training series, called:

* "How To Trade Forex 'For F.R.E.E'"

Click Here to Watch It:

BIG NEWS <-- Forex Profit Accelerator RELEASE DATE . . .

35+ year trading expert Bill Poulos just announced that he's going to be releasing his step-by-step trading program - the Forex Profit Accelerator - which includes his brand new custom, intelligent Trade Alert Software, on:

* THURSDAY, December 15th, at 1pm Eastern (New York time).

Be sure to watch all of the Video for more details.

This is going to be exciting!

After you watch video #3 please post a comment if you like what you see.

All 3 of Bill's training videos will only be available online for a short time, so if you're trying to figure out safe, predictable, and fast way to add on Forex as a potential income stream (in 5 minutes or less per day), please make sure you watch them before they come offline.

Gold Trading System Reviewed

2011-12-07T06:35:00.003-05:00

Part-Time Gold Trader will make you money – or it’s FREE!

That’s a pretty bold statement.

But that’s exactly what Mike Ser and Andy Man are saying.

If you start a 90-day trial of their Part-Time Gold Trader and it doesn’t make you money in the next 90 days, just say the word and you’ll get 100% of your membership dues refunded to you.

You will get the full program for three months (the training, the coaching, the trades themselves) for FREE if you decide it’s not right for you.

PLUS if you start your trial in the next 24 hours, you can lock in an easy, four-payment plan.

You have to act fast. Click here to jump on this now.

If you’re on the fence, just consider what this means.

You’ve got THREE FULL MONTHS to make them PROVE TO YOU that they can make you a better, more successful trader.

Just paper trade his service… the worst case scenario if you decide it’s not for you is that you got three months of coaching, mentoring and training AND you got to trade alongside a self-made millionaire trader for free.

You don’t have to take their word that their strategies will work for you. You’re able to see the reality for yourself.

Take a 90-day risk-free trial and trade alongside Andy for yourself. Just to be safe, I recommend starting with paper trading. That way you can…

Prove to yourself that his trades are still making money in this market.

Prove to yourself that you can actually do what he’s doing. You can see how easy it is to follow his specific buy and sell instructions, and see how simple and effective his risk management strategies are.

Prove to yourself that his systems and strategies really do make you a more successful trader.

Let them prove that they can coach, mentor and transform you into an expert trend follower. Andy’s trend following success has been remarkable. Go ahead and do what he does and see how much better of a trader you become BEFORE making your final decision about the joining the service.

Click here to get all the details on your 90-day trial.

Let Mike and Andy turn you into an expert gold and silver trader.

Mike says Andy has completely demystified the drivers of volatility in gold and silver, and that’s why he is able to cash in on trends that seem to turn on a dime. They want to prove it to you in your trial period.

They’ll show you the EIGHT trend-triggers Andy uses to know when gold or silver is about to break out of a trading range, or change trend direction.

Some trigger short term uptrends, some trigger short term downtrends. Armed with this information, your confidence in trading gold and silver will skyrocket because you won’t be surprised when the market jumps or drops.

Let them hold your hand and show you how to use leverage intelligently without taking on excessive risk. Every trader knows leverage is a double-edged sword. It offers huge rewards, but can have huge risks. Andy seems to be managing his risk remarkably well, why not see if you can do the same with his guidance?

In short, get all of Andy’s trading secrets during your 90-day trial period.

Click here to get all the details on your 90-day trial.

I think this is as simple and straightforward a decision as you’ll ever get as a trader. Get mentored by and trade alongside a trader who became a millionaire starting from scratch in today’s market.

AND do it for 90 days before making a decision on whether or not this is the right service for you. Remember, if at any time during those 90 days you decide it’s not for you, you can just say the word and they’ll give you a 100% refund of every penny you invested to try it.

If you are at all interested, just go ahead and pull the trigger.

Click this link to start your trial.

Click here to review more gold and precious metals resources.

Market Mastery Profitable Stock Picking

2011-12-05T05:28:00.003-05:00

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I don't have a low-risk high-reward stock pick long or short this week as I just don't see the potential risk for reward great enough. I'm still looking for the major indicies to re-test the September October lows. I would consider investing in mortgages with bad credit than take any new positions in the stock market right now. In the meantime I have some free stock trading videos for you to review here that can you can potentially profit from.

As you probably know, there are over 7,000 stocks to choose from on just the U.S. exchanges alone.

But what you might NOT know is that about 97% of these stocks are PURE POISON for your portfolio, meaning that the odds are stacked AGAINST you before you even place a trade.

Recently, one of the most respected trading experts in our community discovered a way to automatically FILTER OUT the 'poison' stocks and leave you with:

* The Top 3% that offer the most profit potential every time you trade.

These are the safest, most predictable stocks that give you the best odds, and if you're NOT trading stocks in the Top 3%, you could be unknowingly KILLING your portfolio.

This trading expert recorded a series of brand new training videos that reveal his discovery, and show you how to filter out the poison stocks yourself.

The first video is ready to watch here:

After you watch it, please leave a comment below the video and let the community know what you think.

I think we're on to something big here.

With this discovery, you have the potential to BEAT the S&P500 by 5,420% or MORE. I know, it sounds weird, but it'll make sense after you watch the video.

Click here to review the videos.

Stocks Lower and Dollar Higher Continuing?

2011-12-02T06:23:00.000-05:00

As The Dow Goes South, The Dollar Recovers. Will it Continue?

By AVAFX

The US Dollar rose to multi month highs. This comes as we see sharp losses in the Dow Jones and the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Dollar Index broke through the psychologically significant resistance at 10,000. It is currently boasting its strongest 20 day appreciation since the height of the financial crisis in 2008.

Today will feature US Nonfarm Payrolls which is foreseeable event risk for the world’s largest economy. However, traders should be aware of any surprises out of the upcoming European finance ministers meetings. Euro Zone tensions hit a new high this last week as a surprising failed German bond auction caused sell-offs in Spanish and Italian bonds. Italy paid a very high and deeply concerning 7.81 percent for 2-year bonds in its most recent auction. This was up substantially from the 4.63 percent they saw last month. Another Euro zone problem came when Standard and Poor’s downgraded Belgium’s sovereign credit rating for the first time since 1997. This was enough to push the US Dollar to significant highs, but the focus on Europe ignores key fundamental risks in the US economy.

Looking back across the pond, US Treasury Bonds rallied last week. This came in despite of news that the so called Super Committee has failed to agree upon fresh budget cuts ahead of its deadline. The lack of action from the group further underlines the political tensions and the unwillingness to get along in the current government. This might end up being a growing credit risk for the US Treasury. Still, global investors continue to flock to the relative safety of Treasury debt. However, further credit downgrades or improvement in Euro zone fiscal crises might push traders away from US debt. This might put the dollar at risk.

The next moves in Europe and as well as which way the financial market goes will be critical to Forex price action. This will come as the Buck might continue to rise as investors rush in as a flight to safety. Right now, 10-year US Treasury yields trade near record lows. That means that prices are near record highs.

Coming up, US economic data will be important.

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The Currency War Begins

2011-12-01T04:52:00.000-05:00

The Currency War Big Picture Analysis for Gold, Silver & Stocks

I think you will admit that we are in the middle of one major crazy financial mess. The part that makes things really crazy is that it’s not just in the United States anymore but rather serious global problem which if not handled properly could change the way we live our lives going forward or possibly even spark some type of war, hopefully things don’t get that crazy… But I do know one thing. Fear is the most powerful force on the planet and people do some crazy things when they are backed into a corner.

Anyways, on a more positive tone… today China decided to help provide more liquidity for the financial system along with the central banks. This news triggered a monster rally in overnight trading making the market gap up sharply at the opening bell. This news did hit the US dollar index hard sending it sharply lower but the question remains “Will today’s news be a one week hiccup in the market?” If Euroland starts printing money it will likely send the dollar higher and stocks lower for 6- 12 months.

Just today I was joking with Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survivor Network about how each country should just give each other country a second chance. Wipe the dept clean and start over knowing this time around exactly how each country truly operates at a financial level allowing everyone to avoid a repeat of this BS. Some countries will get off way better than others because they would get so much dept wiped clean but isn’t it better than years of problems and possibly wars over food, gold, guns, oil and Canadian water? – EH

All joking aside, let’s take a look at the weekly long term charts . . . Dollar Index Showing Possible Massive Rally If Euro Starts Printing Money:

I’m sure my off the cuff options/thoughts will cause a stir but I am fine with that. Everyone I talk to is thinking the dollar is about to fall off a cliff while I think it’s very possible that it does just the opposite. Either way I will be looking to benefit from which ever move unfolds.

Weekly Gold Chart:

Weekly Silver Chart:

Weekly SP500 Chart:

Long Term Thoughts:

I would first like to say that tonight’s report is out of my norm. Generally I do not focus on the big picture negative stuff and I like to avoid it for a few reasons… One, it’s just downright depressing to talk and think about. And Second I don’t want to be labelled as one of those “The Sky Is Falling” kinds of guys.

So, that being said I think these charts above show a situation what is very possible to happen in the coming 6-12 months. Keep in mind that my focus is on short term time frames as it allows me to avoid and actually profit from major market moves while providing enough information for my followers to learn technical analysis and trade management. And the obvious idea of not looking too far into the future with a negative outlook…

With headline risk changing the market direction on a weekly basis, this negative outlook could easily change in a couple months. I will recap on the big picture as things unfold in January/February.

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2007-2008 Market Crash All Over Again?

2011-11-28T04:50:00.000-05:00

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I don't have a buy or sell stock pick this week, but to say, if and when I see the SP500 taking out the October 03 low of 1099.23. I would be a buyer one tick or more below this major support level for another bounce back up into major resistance at the 1200 to 1250 area. In the meantime, I have some further analysis below on the SP500 and Gold.

Is This December Similar to 2007 & 2008 for Gold & Stocks?

Thus far in 2011 the overall stock market movement has been much different from what we had in 2010. This year we have seen nothing but sideways to lower prices with wild price swings on a day to day basis. There just has not been any really solid trends to take advantage of this year. Instead we had to actively trade the oversold dips and sell into the overbought rallies to just pull money out of the market on a monthly basis. Last year we saw 3 major rallies that lasted several months making it easy for anyone who bought into the trend to make money if managed properly.

Looking forward to 2012 it looks as though we are going to see some major changes unfold globally that will change the way we do things live our lives. Unfortunately its a very negative outlook but I do have hope that something will be done to perserve are somewhat normal lifestyles. I’m not one to talk doom and gloom, there are enough of those guys out there already so lets stick with the charts and focus on what is unfolding now in the present and how to take advantage of it…

The charts below show what I feel is likely to happen going into the new year IF we don’t get any major headline news in Europe that triggers another selloff.
Intermarket Analysis:

There are a lot of different things unfolding within stocks, commodities, currencies and bonds right now. And it is imporatnt to know that investments are inter-connected in some way. For example, if one investment moves sharply in one direction it will have an effect on other investment classes.

My eye is focused on the US Dollar Index which has recently had a strong run up in price. For the past couple years we have seen stocks fall when the dollar moves up. So with the dollar index now trading at a key resistance level we should see the dollar top out for a few weeks and spark a Christmas rally into year end. After that, all bets are off and we re-analyze…

On the flop side of things, if Europe comes out with major negative headline news we could see the dollar index continue its rally and breakthrough this resistance level. If the dollar moves higher from here we could easily see a multi month run up in the dollar. You do not want to be long stocks if this happens, get short stocks and hold on tight.

Gold Daily Chart Analysis:

Here is my positive out look for gold and what I feel is likely to unfold near term. But keep in mind what I just said about the US dollar index above. If the dollar continues its rally and breaks out it could actually put some pressure on gold. I know gold is a safe haven so I do expect it to hold up, but a strong dollar will neutralize a lot of the buying in gold in my opinion.

SP500 Daily Charts:

Stocks should have a solid bounce this December if the dollar finds resistance and pulls back in the coming weeks. I am expecting a bounce of 5-10% if all goes as planned.

Christmas Holiday Rally Trading Conclusion:

In short, we are entering a tough time to trade the market. Volatility is low, there are a few holidays and typically we see volume thin out as December unfolds. Light volume generally favors higher prices for stocks and commodities which is one of the reasons we get the holiday lift in prices.

The recent selloff in stocks is looking overdone to the down side and ready to bounce any day. So I am looking for signals to get long the SP500. Overall risk remains very high as sellers are still in control of the market and because we are looking to put on a trade against the intermediate trend which is down.

On Friday morning myself and my followers exited our short position on the SP500 at the open locking in 13.5% profit. We exited the position because the intraday charts are showing signs of a potential bottom and we want to avoid the tear your face off short covering rally that I feel is just around the corner. Now we are waiting for a another low risk setup and will take action to go long or short depending how things unfold in Europe.

By Chris Vermeulen Gold and Oil Forecasts

How to Trade During the Holiday Season

2011-11-24T05:39:00.001-05:00

How to Trade Using Market Sentiment & the Holiday Season

By Chris Vermeulen The Gold and Oil Guy

Happy Thanksgiving! We are forever grateful to you our readers, for everything we have now and what's to come in our future. We are especially grateful to the men and women in military duty protecting the freedoms and liberty of all people around the world.

The months of November and December are the second strongest back to back months for the financial markets. Many traders and investors use this time of the year to reap big gains as they close the year out. The fact that most traders and investors are sitting in cash and underweight stocks in their portfolio’s leaves me to believe a Santa Clause rally is just around the corner. Reason being is everyone has cash on hand to buy stocks because they are selling their positions in this pullback we are in right now. I know traders well enough, they will buy back into the market trying to catch the holiday rally in the coming weeks.

Subscribers and myself have been short the SP500 for a couple weeks after watching the broad market become overbought and sentiment levels became overly bullish with greedy pigs thinking they could buy stocks after a massive month long rally that had not pullback. Once the selling started you would either get you head handed to you or you were going to make a killing buying leveraged inverse ETFs.

Those who arrived late to the rally are the ones selling out of their positions this week. The interesting thing about this week’s market condition is that I have not seeing any real panic selling in stocks, and I’m not seeing the volatility index spike in value yet.

What does this mean? Well it means we could actually see another big dip in the market which should last 1-2 days and then we get a sharp reversal to the upside.

Take a look at the SP500 & Volatility index below:

This chart allows us to get a feel for fear in the market. Me being a contrarian trader, I focus on market sentiment extremes. When the masses are losing money hand over fist I’m generally on the other side of that trade with open arms. Trading off fear is one of the easiest ways to trade the market. That is because fear is much more powerful than greed and it shows up better on the charts. Spotting panic selloff bottoms is something that can be traded successfully if you know what to look for and how to trade them.

On the chart you can see the pullbacks in the SP500 which triggered a panic selling spike in my green indicator. What I look for is a pullback in the SP500 and for my panic selling indicator to spike over 20. When that happens I start watching the volatility index for a spike also. The good news is that the volatility index typically rises the following day making my panic indicator more of a leading one.

I could write a 20 page report with cheap ink going into depth this with topic, but that’s not the point of this report. Just realize that the stock market is likely going to put in a bottom very soon and likely end with a STRONG panic selling washout this week or next. If you want to learn more about how to trade market sentiment and panic selling you can read my strategy which was published in Futures Magazine.

Prepare for a sharp drop in the market which should kick start a holiday rally in the next few trading sessions.

Also consider trading precious metals and the forex pairs as they will be moving big if and when stocks take a big upside reversal.

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Precious Metals Forecast Outlook

2011-11-22T07:07:00.003-05:00

Precious Metals Gold Silver

Over the recent couple months the precious metals charts have made some sizable moves. Most investors and traders were caught off guard by the sharp avalanche type selloff and lost a lot of hard earned capital in just a few trading sessions. Gold dropped over 20% and silver a whopping 40%.

The crazy thing about all this is that these types of moves in precious metals can be avoided and even taken advantage of in certain situations. There is no reason for anyone to continue holding on to those positions after they pullback 6% of more because of the type of price and volume action both gold and silver had been displaying in the past few sessions.

I warned investors on Aug 31st that precious metals were about to top any day and that protective stops should be tightened or taking profits was also a smart move. It was only 2 trading sessions later that precious metals topped and went into a free fall. You can get my detailed analysis if you read my report “Dollar’s On the Verge of a Relief Rally Look Out!”.

A couple weeks later once precious metals has found support and the uneducated investor’s were licking their wounds wondering what the heck just happened to their trading accounts… I put out another report but this time with a bullish outlook. Silver was currently trading at $29.96 and I had a $35-$36 price target over the next two months. Gold was trading down at $1611 and I saw it heading back up to $1750-$1775 area before finding resistance and pulling back. I considered using a financial translation agency to help me convert the statistics but decided to tackle this issue myself. Both these forecasts were reached over the next two months. You can quickly review the report called “Precious Metals Charts Point to higher Prices” for more info.

With all that said, what exactly are the charts saying right now?

Current Precious Metals Charts Summary:

The past 6 weeks we have been watching both gold and silver struggle to hold up but they have managed to grind their way to my price targets. After reaching those targets a couple weeks ago sellers have stepped back into the precious metals market and put pressure these metals.

Last week gold and silver started to pullback in a big way with rising volume. This could just be the start of something much larger which I will cover in just a moment.

The wild card for precious metals and for every stock and commodity for that matter is Europe. Every other day there seems to be headline news moving the market and most of takes place in overnight trading for those of us living in North America. It’s this wild card which is keeping me from getting aggressive in the market right now.

Let’s take a look at the charts.

Silver Precious Metals Chart:

Silver is currently in a down trend and may be starting another leg down this week. Long term I am bullish but for the next couple months I am remain neutral to bearish for silver until it forms a base to start a new uptrend from.

Gold Precious Metals Chart:

Currently I am neutral/bearish on gold. If it can trade sideways for a few weeks then I will become bullish.

Precious Metals Charts Conclusion:

In short, I feel there is a good chance the US dollar will continue higher and if that happens we should see strong selling in North American equities, commodities and likely on the precious metals charts.

Financial markets around the world are at a tipping point meaning something really big is about to take place. The question is which way will investment move. The only thing we can do is trade with the current trends, price patterns and volume.

At this time I still see a higher dollar and that means lower stocks and commodities. This could change at the drop of a hat depending on the news that comes out of Europe so the key to trading right now is to remain cash rich and taking only small positions in the market.

If you would like learn more about etf trading and receive my daily pre-market videos, intraday updates and detailed trade alerts which even the most novice trader can follow then click here to join my free trading education newsletter and my premium trading alert service.

By Chris Vermeulen

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Short-Sell Recommendation on Autodesk ADSK

2011-11-21T04:59:00.001-05:00

Sell Short Autodesk

I've got a low-risk high-reward sell-short stock pick on Autodesk software this week. I see the major market indicies topping out here near term with a retest of the September October lows.

According to Zacks Investment Research, Autodesk Inc Nasdaq ADSK reported third quarter 2012 earnings of 36 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2 cents. Earnings per share, including stock-based compensation but excluding one-time charges increased 33.3% year over year, driven by continued growth in revenues across geographies and business segments.

Revenue

Revenues increased 15.1% year over year to $548.6 million in the reported quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $544.0 million. Revenues were also at the higher end of management’s guided range of $535.0 million to $550.0 million.

The year-over-year growth in revenues was driven by higher license and other revenues, which increased 17.5% year over year to $331.4 million. Maintenance revenues rose 11.6% year over year to $217.2 million in the quarter. Additionally, the revenues for the quarter were boosted by 36.0% increase on a year-over-year basis in the Suites revenue and an increase in the platform solutions and emerging business segments.

On a segmental basis, Platform Solutions and Emerging Business revenues jumped 21.0% year over year to $210.0 million in the reported quarter.

Revenues from the Architecture, Engineering and Construction business segment were $152.0 million, up 12.0% year over year, while Manufacturing revenues increased 14.0% year over year to $134.0 million in the quarter. Revenues from the Media and Entertainment business rose 6.0% year over year to $53.0 million in the quarter.

Autodesk posted significant upside in all of its geographical regions on the back of continued adoption of its products. Revenues in America jumped 12.0% year over year to $200.0 million.

International businesses continued its strong performance during the quarter. EMEA revenues climbed 10.0% year over year to $202.0 million. Asia-Pacific revenues escalated 28.0% year over year to $146.0 million.

Revenues from emerging economies (16.0% of the total revenue) climbed 15.0% year over year to $87.0 million.

Operational Performance

Gross profit (including stock-based compensation but excluding one-time charges) was $500.1 million, up 14.5% year over year. However, gross margin decreased 40 basis points (bps) from the year-ago quarter to 91.2%.

Operating expenses (including stock-based compensation but excluding one-time charges) increased 10.6% year over year to $390.6 million, primarily attributable to higher marketing & sales expenses (up 11.4% year over year) and research & development expenses (up 15.0% year over year) which fully offset a 4.8% year-over-year decline in the general and administrative expenses. However, operating expenses, as a percentage of revenue, contracted 290 bps to 71.2% in the quarter.

Operating income (including stock-based compensation but excluding one-time charges) of $109.5 million was up 31.5% year over year. Operating margin came in at 20.0% in the quarter, up 250 bps year over year, attributable to strong revenue growth and cost controls in the quarter.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

Autodesk’s balance sheet remains strong with no debt. The company exited the third quarter of 2012 with total cash and cash equivalents of $1.34 billion, compared with $1.37 billion in the previous quarter. The decrease was due to the closing of 10 strategic acquisitions during the quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was $138.0 million compared with $132.4 million in the prior quarter.

Outlook

For fourth quarter 2012, Autodesk expects revenues in the range of $575.0 million to $590.0 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $581.0 million.

GAAP EPS is expected in the range of 26 cents to 29 cents. Non-GAAP EPS is expected in the 42 cents to 45 cents range. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at 34 cents per share, which is evidently below the guided range.

For fiscal 2012, Autodesk expects revenues in the range of $2.20 billion to $2.21 billion. GAAP EPS is expected in the range of $1.17 to $1.20 and non-GAAP EPS is expected in the range of $1.70 to $1.73. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.39. Autodesk expects non-GAAP operating margin to improve between 210 and 240 basis points in fiscal 2012.

Additionally, the company provided a sneak peak into their fiscal 2013. For fiscal 2013, Autodesk expects revenues to increase 10.0% on a year-over-year basis, with about 150 basis points increase in the GAAP operating margin and roughly 200 basis points increase in non-GAAP operating margin, over the fiscal 2012 figures.

Recommendation

In our view, Autodesk’s expanding product portfolio and broadening industry and geographic reach will help it sustain its longer-term growth strategy of providing high-volume, lower-cost CAD software. We believe this will likely drive earnings going forward.

Moreover, the acquisitions that are being made in the field of CAD and gaming middleware sections will provide the company with long-term opportunities, particularly in the web-based communities that will likely boost the company’s cloud offerings going forward.

However, foreign exchange fluctuations and increasing exposure in Europe and competition from Adobe Systems Inc. ADBE, Parametric Technology Corp. PMTC are the headwinds. Additionally, there is a risk of customer concentration as an estimated 30% of the Autodesk’s business comes from 1% of the customers.

We have a Neutral recommendation on Autodesk’s shares in the long term. Currently, Autodesk has a Zacks #4 Rank, which translates into a short-term (1-3 months) ‘Sell’ rating.

Sell Short Autodesk – Ticker ADSK

Sell Entry: 36.86 to 32.91

Stop-Loss: 39.80

Take Profit Areas: 21.40 to 20.47, 14.42 to 13.73

Company Profile

Autodesk, Inc. provides design software and service solutions to customers in architecture, engineering, and construction; manufacturing; and digital media and entertainment industries. It operates in four segments: Platform Solutions and Emerging Business (PSEB); Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC); Manufacturing (MFG); and Media and Entertainment (M&E). The PSEB segment offers AutoCAD, a computer-aided design application for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; and AutoCAD LT, a software for professional drafting and detailing. The AEC segment provides Autodesk Revit products that collect information about a building project and allow this information to be coordinated across other representations of the project; AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering; AutoCAD Architecture that built on the AutoCAD platform for architects; and AutoCAD Map 3D, which provides direct access to data needed for infrastructure planning, design, and management activities. The MFG segment offers Autodesk Inventor, which provides a set of tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation to manufacturers; AutoCAD Mechanical, a software to accelerate the mechanical design process; and Autodesk Moldflow, an injection molding simulation software, as well as a range of services, including consulting, support, and training. The M&E segment provides Autodesk 3ds Max, which offers 3D modeling, animation, and rendering solutions for game developers, design visualization professionals, and visual effects artists; Autodesk Maya, a solution for film and video artists, game developers, and design visualization professionals; and creative finishing solutions. It licenses and sells its products and services directly, as well as through distributors and resellers worldwide. Autodesk, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.

Click here to review different investing trading software that scans analyzes stocks for different technical fundamental criteria, and low-risk high-reward trade pattern setups.

Click the Autodesk stock chart below for a larger view.

Millionaire Trader Mindset in Action

2011-11-18T08:40:00.000-05:00

"How to Train Under a Self-Made Millionaire Trader RISK-FREE for 90 Days!"

Andy, a self-made millionaire trader, is offering to let you trade alongside him.

Learn everything about how he trades: his system, risk management, everything . . . coach you AND have his personal trading coach work with you for the next 90 days, risk-free.

If at any time during those 90 days you decide it’s not for you, then just say the word and you’re done. It doesn’t cost you a cent to try it.

Click here to get all the details on your 90-day trial.

It’s not often you get a chance to be coached by and trade alongside a self-made millionaire trader (who made his money trading, NOT collecting big salaries and fees like so many on Wall Street).

It’s also just as rare to get the chance to be coached by a turnaround trading coach who’s trained a self-made millionaire trader.

Today, you’re getting the opportunity to get both risk-free for 90 days.

Could you do what Andy did?

Could you turn $1,600 into $1.4 million in 5 months?

Or could you pay yourself $329,260 from your trading account and still have over $1 million to trade?

Mike Ser answered that question pretty honestly: He doesn’t know.

He (correctly) says:

“The reality is anyone who tells you they can guarantee you’ll make money, get rich or whatever by using their system is flat out lying to you.

A lot of people (like Andy) have gotten rich by following trends, but a lot of traders have also gone broke trading trends and just about every other trading strategy out there. We can help you but, ultimately, your failure or success ultimately rests in your own hands.”

I appreciate his honesty. We don’t get enough of that in the online trading community these days.

What I like even better is that they’ve set it up so you can actually try the service out for 90 days—a FULL THREE MONTHS—before making a final decision on whether it’s right for you.

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8 Session Bear Market Trading Online Webinar

2011-11-17T05:59:00.000-05:00

Intensive LIVE Trading Course

How to Trade in a Fast-Moving Bear Market Online Webinar

No hotels, no jet lag. If you have a high-speed Internet connection, you can attend this intensive, 8-session online trading course.

You'll spend 8 interactive online sessions with EWI's top trading instructors, almost as if you were sitting side-by-side.

Drawing on more than 40 years of combined experience analyzing and trading the markets, Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman and "Trader’s Classroom" instructor Jeffrey Kennedy team up to share with you the best techniques, tips and tools they have to offer – this time over the Web!

In an intimate online classroom setting, Wayne and Jeffrey walk you through carefully selected lessons and hands-on exercises that will give you the understanding and confidence you need to begin applying these techniques in your own trading.

Your education goes at a steady yet relaxed pace, plus it continues even after you've completed the online coursework. Your trading mentors Wayne and Jeffrey are available to clarify a critical lesson or answer that forgotten question that popped up while doing your homework – or even weeks after you've completed the program.

Here's what you'll learn:

Elliott Wave Trading Fundamentals

Risk/Reward Assessment

Discipline Guidelines

Psychology of Trading and the Markets

Technical Tools that Complement Elliott

Developing a Trading Strategy

Determining Support and Resistance Levels

Fibonacci Applications

Entry and Exit Strategies

Placing and Adjusting Stops

Trend Reversals and Pattern Recognition

And More!

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Trading Gold for Maximum Profits

2011-11-15T10:41:00.000-05:00

Click here on how you can be mentored by a self-made millionaire trader.

AND be coached by the trader who taught him.

You know Andy Man went from having less than $1,600 in his account on April 29 of this year to becoming a millionaire trader five months later.

Well, today you’re invited to start a 90-day trial of Andy Man’s breakthrough new Part-Time Gold Trader service.

Click here for all the details.

If you take this 90-day trial today, you’ll also get Mike Ser’s Turnaround Trader Training and Coaching Program. This program is essentially how Mike taught Andy how to trade.

The Cool Part: Because of how they set up the trial, you can actually complete the ENTIRE training before the trial is over. PLUS you get to trade alongside Andy for three months—either on paper or live in the market, whichever you prefer.

On top of that, your trial includes three months of LIVE coaching webinars and Q&A sessions. Yes, all during your TRIAL PERIOD.

Mike and Andy want to give you a chance to really review everything in their service before making a final decision on whether it’s right for you.

You can click here to get all the details now.

The Downside: After the first 250 traders start their trial, the membership dues are going to go WAY up. If you’re interested, please check it out right now before you pay more for putting it off. Click here to review the program.

Is Now the Time for a Deflationary Depression?

2011-11-14T06:46:00.000-05:00

America's First Deflationary Depression: Is a Bigger One Ahead?

I don't have a buy or sell stock pick this week again. SP500 and the major indicies are hitting major resistance now. I see a trading range for stocks for awhile, then I see the September lows being tested again. Instead I have some important information below on a very possible deflationary depression coming. For now I recommend staying in cash, selling short depending on each stock by stock situation, and or trading the forex or commodities markets for some price moves this week.

Social psychology precipitates economic depressions.

Don't blame Martin Van Buren for America's first deflationary depression. Social mood rode higher in the saddle than did our 8th President, who only stood 5' 6".

Elected in 1836, by the time Van Buren assumed office in March 1837 a speculative bubble had burst and a banking crisis was at hand (sound familiar?) -- the national mood had turned south and the "Panic of 1837" followed. Van Buren was known as "The Little Magician," but he could not pull an economic recovery out of the hat. He met defeat seeking a second term.

America's first deflationary depression lasted until 1842. Van Buren blamed over-zealous business practices and a credit bubble (sound familiar 2x?). The panic precipitated bank failures; many speculators who bought land to capitalize on railroad expansion lost everything. The depression worsened as Van Buren continued Andrew Jackson's economic policies. Businesses failed and unemployment was widespread. There were even "food riots" in several cities.

Author's note: Because of substantial revenue inflows into the Treasury during the boom of the early 1830s, the United States government became debt free in 1835. Ironically, this was the very year the depression began. Stock prices fell sharply despite the federal government paying off all of its debt. Conventional wisdom would have us believe reducing the national debt, or paying it off entirely, would lift stock prices. It didn't happen in 1835, so there must be something else at work. That "something else" is social mood.

The 1837-1842 deflationary depression comprised Supercycle Wave II, the end of which saw the beginning of the biggest economic expansion in history -- Supercycle wave III! The 1929-1933 Great Depression still grabs more attention, but in fact the earlier Supercycle Wave II decline set the stage for the United States becoming the greatest economic and military power the world has ever known.

President Herbert Hoover held office during the 1929 Crash and onset of the Great Depression, a.k.a. Supercycle Wave IV. Yet no U.S. President has thus far been at the helm during a Grand Supercycle market decline. The last decline of that degree had its origin in the South Sea Bubble in 1720, when Great Britain's King George I was on the throne. The rampant speculation of the time spread beyond the financial class, such that porters and ladies' maids had enough money to buy their own carriages. Members of the clergy took part in the mania. Poof! Life savings were wiped out. England's Postmaster General committed suicide. Hundreds of members of Parliament lost money. As for the directors of the South Sea Company itself, they were forced to give up their property and arrested to boot.

Martin Van Buren led the nation during our country's first Supercycle depression -- as President he was powerless to stop it. Who will occupy the Oval Office when the next Grand Supercycle depression develops? This we believe: That individual will be powerless to prevent it. He or she will only be a President.

What is more powerful than a President of the United States? The answer is "social mood." How is this powerful force shaping the economy?

Discover the answer in the 90-page Free Report called the Deflation Survival Guide.

Now is the time to prepare for a deflationary depression. Start by reading the 90-page free eBook, Deflation Survival Guide, which includes Robert Prechter's most important analysis and forecasts regarding deflation. This guide will help you survive a major deflationary trend, and even equip you to prosper.

Click here to download your free eBook, the Deflation Survival Guide, now >>

Free Video: Million Dollar Gold and Silver Trading Strategy

Gold and Silver Trend Trading Strategy

2011-11-10T06:55:00.000-05:00

Free Video: Million Dollar Gold and Silver Trading Strategy

Andy is the full-time engineer I told you about the other day who trades gold & silver part-time.

On April 29th, he had less than $1,600 in his trading account – over the next 5 months he turned that into over $1.4 million.

The last video gave you an overview of how he trades. Today’s video gives you the nitty-gritty details behind his million-dollar trading method.

He even goes into his trading account and walks through, day by trading-day, how he did it.

Click here to get the “Million-Dollar” Method now.

In this video Mike Ser, Andy’s trading coach, lays out all the practical details you need to start trading Andy’s method.

Mike and Andy said their goal was to give you enough information to be able to trade this strategy just by using the info in this video.

I love the fact they’re so willing to share the details of their system with everyone.

Best of All: you DON’T need any special software or systems to implement this today. I’m a big fan of what these guys are doing.

I don’t want you to miss out on this so go get this Million-Dollar Method now.

Click here to get the “Million-Dollar” Method now.

Make sure you leave a comment on the video. Mike & Andy are giving away a big gift. If you don’t comment, you can’t win.

Click here to review more gold and precious metals resources.

One Skill to a Holy Grail Trading System

2011-11-09T07:15:00.000-05:00

Click Here for the Free 106-Page Master Report from The Disciplined Trader

The skill that I'm referring to is Journaling. Yes, Journaling.

And the best way to teach you how to Journal effectively is to give you some Real World Examples.. and I'm not just talking about one or two examples… How about 97 Real World Journaling Examples!

THE FACT IS: Journaling is YOUR WAY of being honest with your self… being ACCOUNTABLE to yourself for your trading actions and MIS-ACTIONS.

You see, until you are honest with yourself on where you are, RIGHT NOW, with two things… Your Trading Discipline and How Your Trading Plan is REALLY performing… you will not see the success in trading that you seek.

I want to put you on the right track, starting immediately, so that you don't have to waste another day dreaming of being a successful trader… and you can actually start living the dream.

In this FREE 106-Page Master Report "97 Real World Journaling Examples", you'll learn, SPECIFICALLY . . .

97 Real World Journaling Examples straight from the trading journals of real traders.

HOW journaling your trades and trade results IS DIFFERENT if you make 3 trades a day or 100 trades a day.

WHAT to Journal (some things are important to journal, and some just waste your time).

Should you Journal with a Paper and Pen or do it Electronically? You get examples of both!

How To Journal Your Emotions (This, my friend, winds up being the REAL KEY to your journaling success. Being honest with our emotions will be your quantum leap to solid trading discipline, leading to consistent trading success.) Examples ABOUND!

You'll Find A Journaling Technique that Rings True For You! (Journaling is individually unique to each trader and with 97 Real World Journaling Examples one or two will surely have you saying, "That fit's me to a tee!")

REMEMBER: In order to move forward with your trading success, you must accurately assess where you are RIGHT NOW (Be Accountable!), so you know exactly where and how to improve your results… and JOURNALING is your tool to do this!

Click here for the New Free Video: Part-Time Gold Trader Turns $1,657 into $1.4 Million by Wealth Insider Alliance

Gold Trading Secrets in a Volatile Market

2011-11-08T05:39:00.001-05:00

"Anyone with a ________ method and a dart board could make a million dollars.”

That’s how one famous trader described the market during one of his most profitable periods as a trader.

Andy, the engineer who turned $1,600 into $1.4 million in five months during 2011, says that statement perfectly describes his recent success.

(If you missed his story, click here to hear it and get the secret behind his success.)

He actually uses the same method, and found a sector with the same market conditions, the other trader was describing.

This is part of the three-legged combination of factors that are responsible for his million dollar profit.

In today’s video, you get that three-legged combination. You also get to see how other traders use it to turn tiny accounts into giant accounts.

Traders like:

A 19-year-old trader who borrowed $1,600 to start trading, and became a millionaire by the time he was 26.

A 52-year-old contractor who went from making $50,000 a year at his full-time job, to making millions from his $11,000 trading account, and a trader who started with about $5,000 and 12 years later ended up with $15 million using the same basic approach.

It’s a fascinating story. Click here to hear these inspiring trading stories.

It’s a great piece of market history. You have all these traders trading across different markets, at different times. They’re all using the same trading strategy.

They’re all in sectors with the same market conditions.

They all turn a tiny account into over a million dollars; in some cases, over ten million dollars.

I highly recommend you watch this free video.

I’m willing to bet that you will have at least one “aha!” moment when you watch this video.

Click here to watch it now.

It’ll help your trading even if it turns out that you don’t personally want to trade Andy’s strategy.

Can you guess what trading strategy Andy uses? I’ll even tell you what sector he
trades—gold and silver. What do you think is working like crazy in that market, and let him turn $1,600 into $1.4 million in five months?

Click here to review more gold and precious metals resources.

Trading the Headline Driven Stock Market

2011-11-07T05:39:00.000-05:00

Weekly Stock Pick

No new stock pick this week. Unless your a gambler on the buy long side with some short-term momentum price moves I suggest selling the SP500 stocks short again for now, or staying on the sidelines in cash, and or trading the forex market for some price moves. For the time being, I'm seeing the SP500 index topped out at 1285.09 heading lower to test 1099.23. Anything at or below 1099.23 I would be an avid buyer for a quick bounce back up to 1285.09 plus. After that, re-analyze the market to determine its primary trend direction again, which if I bet now would be down. Instead of I have some market analysis below to help you in your trading this week and next.

How to Trade This Headline Driven Stock Market

With all eyes on the unemployment report and Europe, the CME Group’s PR Department nearly created an all out panic with their announcement after the market close on Friday relating to futures maintenance margin. The original statement was vague and I was quite concerned until I checked out the CME Group’s web-page and the PR Department sent an update clarifying their position. At this point I think the crisis has been averted, but this is just another reminder that we live in “interesting times.”

Keep in mind that if the CME starts raising margin rates across the board for futures contracts in order to protect themselves stocks and commodities could collapse. Silver recently has is margin rates increased and silver since then dropped 25% in value. So imagine if they raised the rates for more commodities…

The current price action in the marketplace pales in comparison to the world’s geopolitical tensions and deteriorating social mood. In my trading career, I have never seen the price action in the indices react so violently to intraday headlines and rumors. Risk is high and the types of traders profiting from this market are day traders and very short term traders with trades lasting just a couple hours to 24 hours in length. Aggressive trading which small position sizes is all that can be done right now. This is not meant to be investment advice, but more as a function of the market environment in which we find ourselves currently trading within.

Right now it is hard to say where price action in the broader indices heads in the short-run. One headline out of Greece or Italy could dramatically alter economic history. In the intermediate term I remain neutral to bearish for a number of reasons. One indicator I follow is the bullish percent index on the S&P 500 which at this point is arguing for lower prices.

The chart below illustrates the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index:

As can be seen above, the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is presently at an overbought status. When looking at the relative strength and full stochastics indicators one would argue that a pullback is warranted. Historically when the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index is this overbought, a pullback ensues which ultimately sees the S&P 500 Index selloff. The more arduous task is trying to determine just how deep the pullback on the S&P 500 Index might be.

It is critical to point out that while I do believe a pullback is likely, I will not rule out a rally into the holiday season. Much of the near-term price action is going to be dictated by headlines coming out of Greece and the rest of Europe. In addition to Greece, Italy is also starting to see increased concern regarding an unsustainable fiscal condition. Depending on how the European Union handles the varying degrees of risk in the near term, we could see price action react violently in either direction.

With the market capable of moving in either direction, I wanted to point out some key price levels which should act as clues regarding potential future price action in the S&P 500. The two key support levels to monitor on the S&P 500 Index are the 1,240 and 1,220 price levels.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index below illustrates the price levels:

For bullish traders and investors the key price level to monitor is the recent highs on the S&P 500 around the 1,290 area. The weekly chart below demonstrates why this price level is critical and which overhead levels will offer additional resistance should the recent highs be taken out to the upside.

SP500 Weekly Chart Analysis:

While I am neutral in the intermediate to longer term presently, in the short run I have to lean slightly bearish simply because of the future headline risk and also because a major head and shoulders pattern has been carved out on the hourly chart of the S&P 500 Index. This type of chart pattern is synonymous with bearish price action.

The hourly chart of the S&P 500 Index is shown below:

Right now I remain slightly bearish, but should the head and shoulders pattern fail and/or we begin to see multiple positive reactions to news coming out of Europe a strong rally into the holiday season is likely. Unfortunately all we can do is monitor the key price levels and wait patiently for Mr. Market to tip his hand.

Until we see a breakout in either direction, we could see price action inhabit the 1,220 – 1,290 price range for several weeks before we get any more clarity of future direction. Until I see a breakout, I will remain relatively neutral with a slight short term bias to the downside based on price patterns in the shorter term time frames. This is a tough market to trade in, and I don’t want to get chopped around or do any heavy lifting. I’m going to focus my attention on high probability, low risk trade setups until directional biased trades make more sense.

In closing, I will leave you with the thoughtful muse of the late Texas Congresswoman Barbara Jordan,

“For all of its uncertainty, we cannot flee the future.”

Market Analysis and Thoughts By:

Chris Vermeulen – ETF Trading Videos & Trade Alerts

JW Jones – Options Trading videos & Options Alerts

US Dollar Should Continue to Fall

2011-11-04T06:41:00.000-04:00

The US Dollar Should Continue to Fall . . . Even After this Week

David Frank Chief Analyst Ava FX

The Dow Jones Index saw its largest single week loss since early 2009. This comes as it sold off sharply as the S&P 500 finished its biggest monthly advance in nearly 25 years. Traders aggressively sold US Dollar long positions against the Euro and other major counterparts. This move comes following the announcement of aggressive new aid for Greece and other troubled Euro Zone governments. Overall trends favor further USD declines. Still, it will be critical to watch major economic news this week and next.

The US Dollar continues to track movements in the Dow Jones with stunning accuracy, and we expect the Dollar to respond to major shifts in broader market sentiment. With a US Fed interest rate decision and a US Nonfarm Payrolls coming up today, volatility is guaranteed. We should expect strong US data to drive stocks higher but the US currency could actually decline.

Forecasts call for unchanged interest rates from the US Fed and a fairly tepid gain in October US Nonfarm Payrolls data. These weak and gloomy economic forecasts make it surprising to see such large advances in the US S&P 500. Right now, we believe that recent rallies in the Dow and simultaneous US Dollar tumbles are short-covering. What does this mean? Traders are covering previous DJIA short positions and closing US Dollar long positions. This is forcing stocks higher and the safe-haven Buck lower.

We only need to look at the recent rate of change in the equity markets for evidence of short covering. In normal bull market conditions, price will tend to trend higher while downside corrections are swift and sharp. Fear is a stronger emotion than greed. Price tends to fall much more rapidly than it rallies as traders are running for the exits in a panic. Yet we have most recently seen the opposite. Extreme rallies emphasize that market conditions are far from normal and traders holding short positions are liquidating in a hurry.

We look to the coming days with great interest.

This is because the first week of the month often sets the pace for the remainder of the trading period. It will be critical to watch whether the S&P 500 can post further explosive gains and continue its uptrend through the month of November.

We wait with much anticipation the first trading week for November. Recent trends suggest the Dollar may continue lower this month. However, key event risk could just as easily drive major price shifts the other way causing a major shift in direction.

Click here to review more forex resources and information.

Click here to review forex signals.

Click here to review forex Metatrader Expert Advisors

Gold Market Trend Forecast Outlook

2011-11-03T07:23:00.000-04:00

Gold Ready to Attack Prior Highs in the 1900’s

By David Banister Market Trend Forecast

It’s been several weeks since I’ve written about Gold and we have had a wild ride since the 1910-1920 highs in August. When gold was trading at that lofty price I forecasted a major correction was nearing. We were shorting gold from $1862- $910 prior to the huge $208 drop that took place over just a a few days. We covered our short at $1725 and then Gold rallied back to a double top at $1920 and then fell back to $1531.

That pullback to $1531 qualifies as a Fibonacci retracement of the 34 month rally from $681 to $1920, and would also qualify for a price low for a 4th major wave correction that I discussed in prior forecasts. My initial targets for the Gold pullback were $1480-$1520 if the $1650 area was violated. Most recently we have seen Gold run up to 1681 which is another Fibonacci resistance zone a few times and then back off to the low $1600’s.

With the recent push over $1681, we can now confirm the 4th wave is over at $1531 lows and that the 5th wave is likely in the very early stages, but beginning to build steam. I will say that we want to make sure the 1650-1680’s areas are defended by Gold on any pullbacks in order for this forecast to remain valid. During this 5th wave up, eventually we should see the $2380 ranges in Gold, but it will not take place overnight. In the next few months I am looking for Gold to attack the $1900 range, possibly even by year end, and then in 2012 attacking the $2000 plus ranges.

With all of the Macro events in Europe changing on an almost daily basis, the whipsaws in both the precious metals and equities markets are difficult to forecast and trade for most investors. However, Gold has been moving in defined Fibonacci and wave patterns for ten years now, and has about three years left in a 13 year bull cycle if I’m right.

Below is the updated weekly chart of Gold. You can see prior low’s as they related to oversold indicators, and where we just came off the 1531 lows and its Fibonacci pivot along with the oversold indicators below.

Look for Gold to attack 1775 first, then 1800, 1840, then 1900 in the coming 6-10 weeks or so.

Click here to review more Gold information and resources.

Greek Debt Crisis Tragedy Continues

2011-11-02T07:05:00.000-04:00

By Steve Reitmeister Executive VP, Zacks Investment Research

In a shocking turn of events, Greece has put the adoption of the bailout plan up for a public vote. The outcome of that vote 10 weeks from now is anything but certain. Until that clarity emerges, it will be hard for US stocks to advance beyond the highs made last week.

If the Greeks approve the deal, then we should see the positive momentum for stocks resume.

If the Greeks vote down the deal, then it may simply be to get a better deal squeezed out of the Eurozone partners. That may indeed happen, followed by upward movement in stocks.

If the Greeks vote down the deal AND no other deal emerges, then it will likely be a disorderly default with massive losses in European markets with waves of pain hitting our shores as well.

My guess is that we will be stuck in a trading range between the 50 day and 200 day moving average (S&P 1189 to 1274) until this is resolved. And during that time the market will probably overreact to every glimpse into how the Greek citizens will vote.

Best buckle up for a bumpy ride.

More Zacks Investment Research Articles to Put Greek Situation in Perspective

• Buying on Greece Going Rogue

• Greece Holds Euro Deal Hostage

• Euro Dilemma, In Depth

Other Featured Commentaries on Zacks

• The Techno-Fundamental Edge

• What's Your Stock's Price Target?

• Aggressive Growth Stock Picks-Nov. 1, 2011

Click Here to Review the Profits Run Portfolio Prophet Trading Results

The Stock Market’s Dream Scenario

2011-11-01T06:58:00.000-04:00

By John Thomas of Wealth Insider Alliance

I’m sitting here with a mountain of technical analysis reports that are causing my desk to buckle this morning, all shouting “breakout”, “buy”, and “uptrend”. So I’m wondering, “is there a scenario out there where these might actually come to pass?”

At this point I thought it might be useful to engage in what Albert Einstein called “thought experiments” and come up with a New Theory of Everything. In any case, you have probably all figured out that I am a frustrated novelist. As my old friend and former mentor, Sherlock Holmes, used to say, “Eliminate the obvious, and consider all other possibilities.”

First, let’s see how we got here. It was obvious to me that the market was overdue for a huge short covering rally that would take the index up 20%-27% off the lows (see my early September piece “My Equity Scenario for the Rest of 2011”). That’s why I entitled my October 8 webinar “The Short Game is Over.”

That is exactly what we got. Corporate earnings came in much better than traders expected, triggering a huge rush by under-performing managers to bring in some decent numbers by year end. We hit my target of the 200 day moving average at 1,275, a gain of 19.7%, and saw the second best month in stock market history.

Enter black swan number one. Last week, the hedge fund community established heavy short positions expecting a complete breakdown of the European sovereign debt crisis talks. But the bar was set so low they could only succeed. Ten minutes before midnight, we received an unexpected news flash about a comprehensive three part deal that was clearly a major leap forward. The Dow futures immediately gapped up 200 points in the overnight market.

That delivered the massive short covering rally on huge volume that generated all the technical green lights now on my desk. Conventional active managers panicked and stampeded to address substantially underweight positions which they achieved only recently at the market bottom.

So what happens next? In a few weeks, the Supercommittee reaches its deadline for achieving comprehensive budget balancing targets. Guess what? The hedge fund community is setting up large short positions in the run up to that day, betting that intransigent Republicans will refuse to agree to any tax hikes whatsoever, automatically triggering huge, deflationary spending cuts. The bet is that a market crash is a guaranteed outcome, similar to the one that followed the debt ceiling debacle in July.

Enter black swan number two. A smiling and deeply tanned John Boehner appears in front of the cameras at ten minutes to midnight, announcing that “he went the extra mile” and “reached across the aisle” and resurrected the $4 trillion deal he almost reached with Obama last summer before the Tea Party stabbed him in the back. The Dow futures immediately gap up 200 points in the overnight market, and a monster rally ensues, taking the S&P 500 up to its 2011 high of 1,367 by year end.

We then go into January with a market that looks very toppy and expensive. Active managers and talking heads complain bitterly that this is all short covering not justified by the fundamentals. But hey, a dollar made a short covering market buys just as much Jack Daniels at the bar as one made from long only buying. Hedge fund managers bet the ranch that a new market crash is coming, taking it back down to the bottom of the range 300 points lower. Traders are salivating at the prospect of making a killing, and active managers hurriedly move to underweight positions again.

Enter black swan number three. The People’s Bank of China announces in a carefully worded statement that its campaign to end rampant real estate speculation has finally succeeded. Developers have been seen cutting prices on new apartments coming on the market as much as 25%. As a result, the risks to the Chinese economy are now to the downside, and the central bank immediately cuts interest rates by 0.5%.

The Dow futures immediately gap up 200 points in the overnight market as the mother of all short covering rallies explodes. Commodities, like copper, coal, platinum, and palladium go through the roof. BHP Billiton (BHP), Joy Global (JOYG), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Union Pacific (UNP), and Caterpillar (CAT) go bid only. Oil soars. The S&P 500 touches a new all-time high at 1,565. A major hedge fund manager jumps off the top of the Empire State building and crashes into a taxi on 5th avenue driven by an immigrant Nigerian taxi driver. His pockets are fill with trade confirms showing gigantic short covering losses. There is a twisted grin on his face.

OK, the Nigerian taxi driver was a bit much. But I will tell you one thing for sure. This flock of black swans absolutely has not been discounted by the market, and has a much higher probability than the market’s many armchair strategists, pundits, and seers realize.

Personally, I put the odds of all this unfolding at one in three. If we do manage to claw our way up that high, we will be at the top of a 13 year range for the market. Then the greatest shorting opportunity of a generation will be on the table because the Great Crash of 2012-2013 will be just around the corner.

Click here to learn about being a World Class Trader from Mad Hedge-Fund Trader John Thomas of Wealth Insider Alliance

What Kind of Trader Are You?

2011-10-31T06:33:00.000-04:00

How You Can Make Yourself a Better Trader

I don't have a buy or sell stock pick this week. I suggest getting ready to sell-short for the short term. I see the SP500 index making a short-term top here now at 1292.66 with 1074.77 support as my target and below to buy in for a very low-risk high-reward upside bear-market rally after that. Some think that now there's a supposedly a European Union solution for the Greek debt default, that its a bull-market again. I don't think so, but a lot of pressure has been released to keep the markets from continuing crashing hard and fast it seems. Short-term now I'm selling short looking for the break of 1074.77 on the SP500 then cover, and buy long.

What Kind of Trader Are You?

The idea of being a successful trader is exciting. The reality of becoming one is another thing. You need to understand more than the markets -- you need to understand yourself.

EWI's Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy knows what it takes. He has analyzed and traded the markets for over 15 years. Jeffrey has learned what it takes to be successful, and he has the discipline to apply that knowledge. Enjoy this excerpt from his free Club EWI eBook Best of Traders Classroom, in which he answers: What kind of trader am I?

As a trader, it is imperative that you define your approach to the markets. For instance, do you follow the trend or do you like to play breakouts? Are you a commodity trader or an index trader at heart? What's your trading time frame, five minutes or five weeks? Moreover, how do you analyze markets, fundamentally or technically? Do you prefer using a black box type trading system or making your own calls?

My trading style is to trade with the trend. Specifically, I like to buy pullbacks in uptrends and sell bounces in downtrends. My markets are commodities, and my time frame is three to five days. If I catch a trade that has some legs to it, and it lasts a little longer, that's fine with me. Bottom line, though, I'm a take-the-money-and-run kind of guy. This is who I am as a trader.

In addition to the Wave Principle, I include basic chart reading and bar patterns in my analysis. While I do use a few select technical studies in arriving at my decisions, I have always believed that "price" is the ultimate indicator and that everything else is secondary.

Remember, success in trading comes from the consistent application of a proven methodology. If you don't define your methodology, then your trading style could change with each new issue of Stocks and Commodities magazine. Trying a variety of analytical techniques rather than consistently following one is a problem for traders, and it's also a great way to lose your trading account.

Read more of Jeffrey's lessons in his free 45-page eBook: The Best of Trader's Classroom. This valuable eBook, adapted from the $189 set of the same name, offers the 14 most actionable lessons every trader should know.

Click here to download your free eBook now.

Click here for the video Portfolio Profit Results report card on some very successful traders.

Mining the Markets for Profitable Trades

2011-10-27T06:52:00.000-04:00

TradeMiner - Advanced Trading Software For Advanced Traders

TradeMiner is a new software trading tool that helps identifies trading opportunities through the use of Artificial Intelligence and brute force mathematics.

What used to take days of time consuming mathematical calculations through an Excel spreadsheet is now done in a matter of seconds.

For the past 10 years, TradeMiner has been a proprietary trading tool developed for market analysts, system signal providers, and Stocks, Futures and Forex newsletter authors & magazine publishers.

This tool, until now, has only been available to a small select group of industry professionals & traders -- For now, this tool is available to you.

The software finds historically accurate trends that have been profitable 80%, 90% or even 100% of the time over the past 5,10,20, or even 30 years.

This is all done through a proprietary, artificial intelligent, data cube that allows the computer to calculate and find (mine) millions and millions of trades in seconds.

TradeMiner is NOT a website, it’s an installed application on your own PC. No Internet access required to run, you can use it on the airplane!

How Does TradeMiner Work?

The inner workings of the TradeMiner technology is a proprietary company secret, but the quick and dirty details are that we’ve developed a masterful way of searching through millions of data records from a 3D point of view, in what we call a Plug ‘n Play, portable 3D Data Cube. Market data goes in, and winning trades come out.

While most databases search through data in a linear fashion, TradeMiner has the ability to search through data from multiple points of access, then, using artificial intelligence, each subsequent search through the data gets faster and faster each time. What used to take hours and hours of computer CPU time now takes seconds.

TradeMiner Provides You With The Following Guidelines:

Entry Date: When the historical trend begins.

Exit Date: When the trend ends.

Profit & Loss: How much money the trade has made over the past 5, 10, 15, 30, 40 or more years.

Exit Strategy: Recommended stop loss order placement and profit targets.

Detailed History: Review the actual trade history of each trade.

Risk Vs. Reward: Risk Levels that were required to obtain the stated profit.

Profit Probability: Probability percentages of potential profitability.

Trading Style: Supports both short term trend identification for day traders, as well as long-term trends for position trading.

Brokerage: Works with any brokerage account, no expensive EA’s or other special software required.

No Programming: No programming required, no complicated installation.

Which Computer?: TradeMiner is not a website, its a downloadable application that’s Java based, therefore it works on PC, MAC, or Linux! Run TradeMiner, even when you have no Internet access. Only requires 2Gigs of memory to run! (Recommend four.)

Click here to review information about TradeMiner

Survive with Dividend Paying Stock Strategies

2011-10-26T07:11:00.000-04:00

Click Here to Beat Wall Street at its Own Game

If the "lost decade" has taught us anything, it's that we need to change the way we invest in stocks. Today's generation of investors--myself included--came of age in a world where capital gains were easy and the homework was light. Although generating returns today isn't nearly as easy as it used to be, Wall Street continues to perpetuate the myth that capital gains are the be-all and end-all in investing.

It's been almost seven years since I charted a new course. I'd had quite enough of the buy-low, sell-high circus and found that there were other ways of making money in stocks--strategies that didn't rely on analyst upgrades, quarterly earnings estimates, celebrity CEOs, or patterns on charts.

I went back to first principles: investing in stocks that paid me back in cash through large, reliable, and growing dividends. If I could get the dividend right, everything else would take care of itself.

These principles became the cornerstone of Morningstar Dividend Investor, the newsletter I founded in 2005. Its goal is to provide you with practical, actionable, and timely investment advice from someone who is not trying to double your money every 90 days with high-risk picks, but rather to preserve capital, earn attractive income, and encourage long-run wealth accumulation.

Given the turmoil and tragedy in the years since Dividend Investor's inception, I'm pleased to report that we've made money while others have lost it. Our real-money Harvest and Builder portfolios have collected steady dividends--over $33,000 on a $100,000 initial investment based on one measure--while stocks have gone up, crashed, rebounded, and fallen again. Even without trying to "beat the market," Dividend Investor's recommendations have beaten Wall Street at its own game, with more total return and less risk.

I believe passionately in the principles and procedures that have produced our results thus far. In fact, our recommendations aren't just on paper. We've actually bought everything we've called a "buy" with Morningstar's own money. The same goes for our sells and holds. Sure, we've made some mistakes--who hasn't? But we always provide complete transparency for our subscribers. You get to learn from our steps and missteps. I will say, however, that our overall record speaks volumes about the true nature of stocks and the best way to profit.

How many of Wall Street's myths are you holding dear?

For me, this is more than a business. It's a mission. Wall Street is not telling the truth about how stocks really work, and almost no one seems to have a vested interest in making money for clients first and themselves second.

Though I am a professional investor by trade, I'm a historian at heart. Let's reach past the media-driven, debt-fueled bubbles of the past 20 years to examine how to really make money in stocks, starting by exploding a few myths that seem nearly universally held by investors.

Myth: Stocks are all about capital gains.

Fact: More than 90% of stock market returns are explained by dividends.

Depending on who and what you read, you've probably heard that the stock market returns 9%, 10%, or 11% a year. Do you know how many times the stock market has actually returned between 9% and 11% since 1945? Just once! (That was in 1993, in case you want to impress your friends.) In all other years, the returns on stocks were either higher or lower--sometimes a lot lower.

Yet amid all these fluctuations, dividends are the steadying factor. Not only does dividend income account for 36% of the total returns of the stock market* over the past 65 years, but dividend growth--the increasing income you can't get from bonds or other fixed-income investments--accounts for another 53%. The pure speculative piece (and what occupies 90% of Wall Street's attention) accounts for only 11%.

The Dividend Investor strategy seeks companies that pay solid yields--generally at least 3% and sometimes as much as 7%, but not so high that they're at risk of being slashed. But we don't stop there. We also want dividend growth that is at least equal to inflation, and the lower the yield on the stock the more growth we insist upon. This simple goal has paid off with over 230 separate dividend increases for our portfolio recommendations since 2005--and only 16 cuts.

Myth: A stock is worth whatever someone will pay for it.

Fact: The value of a stock comes from its future dividend payments.

I could wander off into the tall weeds of financial theory, but it's really not all that complicated. Think of it this way: You wouldn't put your hard-earned savings into a bond that paid no interest and never gave your original investment back, would you? Or invest directly in a small business that would never share its earnings? Why should the publicly traded stock of a large corporation be any different? Unlike bonds, stocks don't pay interest and they don't mature. An awful lot don't pay dividends either. But the ones that do are providing real, tangible, spendable value to their shareholders every year. Why make investing any more complicated than it needs to be?

One of my favorite companies, one that pays dividends every month and raises its dividend four and sometimes five times a year, puts this phenomenon in sharp relief. Since the end of 1994, when its stock traded at $8.56, it has paid dividends totaling almost $20 a share. The dividends keep right on coming, and right on growing, even as that stock now trades for $35.

Myth: You don't need income from your investments--you can always sell shares.

Fact: Only dividends can help you avoid selling shares at the worst possible prices.

We all remember that 2008 was a terrible year for the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4,488 points and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 38.5%. The value of my portfolio holdings dropped too--it isn't as though dividends are guaranteed to prevent short-term paper losses. Excluding income, my two model portfolios lost 29.1% of their starting value of about $223,000. Even so, they threw off more than $11,000 worth of income--cash that could be used to pay the bills without having to sell stocks at 30% or 40% below their peaks. And since I didn't have to sell out, I could enjoy the recovery in full.

If you remember nothing else from this letter, remember this: dividends, and only dividends, provide returns that are always positive and paid in cash. That much should make dividend-paying stocks and strategies worth getting to know!

Introduce your portfolio to our dividend recommendations, market commentary, and detailed company reports from our unrivaled equity analyst team.

Stay current with ongoing editorials on income-producing industries, roundups of significant dividend actions, and a watch list of dividends we think are likely to be cut or eliminated.

Follow our strategy in action, through the performance of our real-money Builder and Harvest portfolios.

Get weekly recaps of the week's events and timely buy/sell alerts, sent all to your email in-box.

Enjoy 24-hour access to online editorial, videos, performance data, past issues, and research.

Best regards,

Josh Peters, CFA, Equities Strategist, Editor, Morningstar Dividend Investor

A Forex Trading Robot That Works?

2011-10-25T06:55:00.002-04:00

Click Here for the Free Software Download

Yesterday Dustin Pass and Tom Flora opened up access to anyone who wants to use Tom’s EA. That means you can download, install, and run it on your Metatrader 4 platform, and see how a trader turns a working manual strategy into a hands-off automated strategy.

Here’s the link, make time for this before they rescind the offer, it’s
well worth it:

Click Here for Tom's EA Software Free Download Trial

Yep, robots sometimes fail, and I was very skeptical about Tom’s EA, but that changed when I got to know Tom and learn more about his strategy. He’s been really open and transparent about how it works, why he created it, and the results it has earned for him personally. I appreciate his offer and I recommend you give it a shot.

It’s totally complimentary, and this gives you a chance to evaluate something up front - they don’t even require an opt-in, so hit that link. He already published the mechanics of the strategy in the ‘robot report’ I emailed you about, and now it’s your turn to make it work for you, but this time, there’s pretty much no effort required on your part, as this EA installed to Metatrader as a fully automated robot.

You just choose risk/aggressiveness levels 1,2, or 3, choose your currency pairs, and let it trade for you.

I know this can be scary at first, so just run it on a demo account until you have it mastered.

Don’t get greedy. While this software WILL run on a live account, you shouldn’t do it until you see it consistently making a profit for you. And make sure you follow the guidelines they’ll provide you.

Click here for the direct no-optin free software download link.